America's Population Count Will Shrink by Millions Under New Plan

Legislation passed by House Republicans would add a citizenship question to the U.S. Census starting in 2030 and could significantly impact total population counts if enacted. The bill's sponsor told Newsweek that it would prevent electoral outcomes from being "skewed."

The Equal Representation Act, which passed Wednesday by a party-line vote of 206-202, would essentially ask a Census taker if he or she is a U.S. citizen, with the number of citizens and noncitizens per state tabulated and made publicly available within 120 days of completion.

Representative Chuck Edwards, a Republican from North Carolina, said in remarks on the House floor Wednesday that the ongoing crisis at the U.S.-Mexico border is partly why he brought the bill forward, arguing that illegal immigration has nefarious long-term implications on the country.

"Including the count of non-U.S. citizens in determining how many congressional seats and electoral votes each state has is skewing the representation of Americans in their federal government," Edwards told Newsweek via email on Thursday morning.

"The mere presence of illegal immigrants in the U.S. is influencing electoral outcomes, and the Equal Representation Act that the House passed would protect our democracy by making sure that American citizens—and American citizens only—have a say in determining the direction of our country."

H.R. 7109 still needs to be approved by the Democratic-controlled Senate.

Former President Donald Trump attempted to add a similar citizenship question to the 2020 Census, but his efforts were curtailed by the U.S. Supreme Court.

Members of the foreign-born population in the U.S. include anyone who is not a U.S. citizen at birth, such as naturalized citizens, non-citizen U.S. nationals, lawful permanent residents (immigrants), temporary migrants (such as foreign students), humanitarian migrants (such as refugees and asylees) and unauthorized migrants.

All others are counted among the native-born population, comprising anyone who is a U.S. citizen at birth—extending to people born in the states, Puerto Rico, a U.S. island (Guam, the Commonwealth of the Northern Mariana Islands and the U.S. Virgin Islands), or abroad to a U.S. citizen parent or parents.

The U.S. Census Bureau collects and publishes survey data on the characteristics of foreign-born residents of the United States, such as country of birth, U.S. citizenship status and year of entry into the United States.

It also collects data from all foreign born who participate in its censuses and surveys, regardless of legal status—meaning that unauthorized migrants "are implicitly included" in Census estimates.

Edwards pushed back against language in the 14th Amendment, which requires that congressional seats be distributed among the states "according to their respective numbers, counting the whole number of persons in each State."

Citizens and non-citizens have been part of the total population count since the first U.S. Census took place beginning on August 2, 1790.

"[Claimed constitutional experts] will point to the word 'persons' in Section 2 of the 14th Amendment as a reason why this bill should not pass," Edwards said on the House floor. "But this word carries no definition in our Constitution, and it offers multiple different meanings in current law."

House Speaker Mike Johnson praised the legislation in a post-vote statement, saying: "We should not reward states and cities that violate federal immigration laws and maintain sanctuary policies with increased Congressional representation."

White House Press Secretary Karine Jean-Pierre was asked by the media on Wednesday if the administration believes that non-citizens should be counted toward congressional and Electoral College votes.

"I've not talked to anybody on the team about that," she said. "That's new to me."

Newsweek reached out to the White House via email for comment.

Implications of citizenship question

Steven Camarota, director of research at the Washington, D.C.-based Center for Immigration Studies (CIS), told Newsweek via phone that current surveys—such as the Current Population Survey, sponsored jointly by the U.S. Census Bureau and the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS)—are continually updated and provide a window into the country's changing demographics.

The survey in January 2021, the same month President Joe Biden took office, showed roughly 22.2 million noncitizens. The number has grown to 26.3 million, which Camarota calls extraordinary and is due in part to the southern border surge.

"For me, the No. 1 reason is collecting data that would be invaluable in assessing migration," he said, adding that population estimates combined with the Census Bureau's inability to know exactly the foreign-born population "has cascading effects" on funding for states, employment rates and electoral outcomes and partisan implications.

A February 2020 study Camarota co-authored on the impact of noncitizens on political representation in the U.S. House found many districts in which a large share of the population is not made up of U.S. citizens—in essence requiring candidates in some districts to have to attain many more votes from citizens to win, rather than in districts with large noncitizen populations.

One example he provided was of noncitizens in 12 congressional districts with the lowest share of citizens, which had roughly the same population of voting-age U.S. citizens as the nine districts with the highest citizen shares. It equated to high-citizen districts having only nine representatives in Congress, while those in the lowest-citizenship districts had 12, even as combined populations were relatively equal.

"I would argue passionately that the reason to include the foreign born is that it would give us a lot of interesting information," Camarota said. "The political stakes are very high. Immigration does redistribute power in the United States."

Immigration lawyer Rosanna Berardi told Newsweek that a citizenship question "could significantly alter how the U.S. Census impacts congressional representation and federal resource allocation" as well as have "profound long-term effects on immigrant communities across the country."

Her primary concern is the undercounting of immigrants, many of whom she said may avoid participating in the Census due to fears about their citizenship status.

"This undercount could result in reduced federal funding for essential services such as health care, education and infrastructure in areas with large immigrant populations," Berardi said. "Additionally, the political representation of these communities could be significantly diminished, making our democratic process less inclusive and equitable."

She added that "the diverse fabric of our nation" risks being marginalized, while millions of people who contribute to society but may lack status as U.S. citizens could have unfair and inequitable representation and lose out on various resources.

Update 5/9/24, 12 p.m. ET: This story was updated with comment from Steven Camarota and Rosanna Berardi.