Former President Donald Trump would be favored to defeat President Joe Biden in the popular vote as well as the Electoral College if the 2024 election were held today, according to recent polling averages.
While Biden has seen some improvement in recent national and state-level polls, overall the Democratic incumbent appears to be fighting an uphill battle against his Republican rival. Trump and Biden are polarizing figures, with polls showing that they are unpopular with the majority of Americans.
Trump, however, currently appears to be very narrowly ahead in national polling while Biden also trails the former president in all the critical battleground states, according to polling averages compiled by ABC News' polling analysis site FiveThirtyEight and Real Clear Polling.
Presidential elections are decided by the Electoral College, which awards each state a certain number of electoral votes. A presidential candidate needs to secure 270 electoral votes for victory, and winning the national popular vote does not guarantee success. Notably, Trump lost the popular vote in 2016, as did former President George W. Bush in 2000. With most states leaning solidly Republican or Democrat, the Electoral College gives just a few battleground states outsized influence in deciding the ultimate winner.
The national polling average by FiveThirtyEight currently shows Trump with 41.7 percent support compared to Biden's 40.9 percent—a lead of 0.8 percent for the former president. The average was last updated on Saturday. Comparatively, the Real Clear Polling average, which was last updated on April 22, has Trump leading by 0.3 percent—44.8 percent to 44.5 percent.
Generally, political analysts view seven states as critical battlegrounds for the 2024 presidential election: Arizona, Georgia, Michigan, Nevada, North Carolina, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin. Trump and Biden are expected to do a substantial portion of their campaigning and spending in these competitive states.
Here's a look at where the polling averages stand in each of these battleground states. Newsweek reached out to the Trump and Biden campaigns via email for comment.
Arizona
Trump currently leads Biden in Arizona by 3.6 points, 43.2 percent to 39.7 percent, according to FiveThirtyEight's average. The Real Clear Polling average for the state, which was last updated on April 13, shows Trump up by 5 points, 49.3 percent to Biden's 44.3 percent.
Biden narrowly beat Trump in Arizona in the 2020 election by less than 11,000 votes. The Democrat won 49.4 percent compared to the Republican's 49.1 percent, marking the first time a Democratic presidential candidate had carried the state since 1996.
Georgia
Biden trails Trump by an average of 6.3 points in Georgia, according to FiveThirtyEight. The Democrat has the backing of about 39.3 percent of Georgia's voters compared to 45.6 percent who back his GOP rival. Real Clear Polling's average, last updated on April 16, has Trump up 4 points, 49.7 percent to 45.7 percent.
Like Arizona, Biden narrowly won Georgia in 2020. The president carried the state by less than 12,000 votes, with 49.5 percent of the vote to Trump's 49.3 percent. Prior to Biden's win, no Democratic presidential candidate had won Georgia since 1992.
Michigan
Voters in Michigan prefer Trump by a margin of 3.2 percent, according to FiveThirtyEight's average. Trump has the support of 42.8 percent whereas Biden has the backing of 39.6 percent. In the Real Clear Polling average, which was last updated on April 16, 47.4 percent back Trump and 44.4 percent support Biden, a 3 point lead for the former president.
Trump narrowly won Michigan in the 2016 election, but the state then went for Biden in 2020.
Nevada
Although Nevada has gone for Democratic candidates in every presidential election since 2008, the polling average currently show Trump leading Biden. The FiveThirtyEight average has the Republican at 43.3 percent and the Democrat at 37.2 percent. Similarly the Real Clear Polling average, last updated April 13, has Trump at 48.8 percent and Biden at 44 percent.
Biden defeated Trump in Nevada in 2020 by over 33,000 votes. The margin was 2.4 percent, or 50.1 percent to 47.7 percent.
North Carolina
North Carolina last went for a Democratic presidential candidate in the 2008 election. But with a Democratic governor in the state, Democrats are hopeful Biden can win there as well.
However, FiveThirtyEight's polling average shows Trump leading by 5.4 points, 45.1 percent to 39.7 percent. The Real Clear Polling average, last updated on April 13, has Trump up 4.8 points, 48.8 percent to 44 percent.
Pennsylvania
The race is close in Pennsylvania, with Trump only leading by an average of 1.1 percent, 43.0 percent to Biden's 41.9 percent, according to FiveThirtyEight. Real Clear Polling actually shows Biden very narrowly ahead by 0.4 percent, 46.7 percent to Trump's 46.3 percent. However, that average was last updated on April 16.
Biden won Pennsylvania in 2020 after Trump carried the state in 2016. The former Republican president's victory there was the first for a GOP candidate since 1988.
Wisconsin
Trump very narrowly leads Biden in Wisconsin, with a lead of 1.2 percent according to FiveThirtyEight's average. The Republican has the backing of 42 percent compared to the Democrat's 40.8 percent. Real Clear Polling's average, last updated April 16, shows Trump ahead by 2 points, 49 percent to Biden's 47 percent.
Similar to Pennsylvania, Wisconsin went for Trump in 2016 and then was won by Biden in 2020. Prior to Trump's win, the midwestern state hadn't gone for a Republican since 1984.
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Jason Lemon is a Weekend Editor at Newsweek based in Brooklyn, New York. Prior to taking on the editor role, Jason's reporting focused on ... Read more
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