Republicans are hoping to flip a key Senate seat in Nevada this November, but polls show Democratic Senator Jacky Rosen with a lead over her challengers just six months ahead of the election.
Rosen, first elected in 2018, is facing her first reelection bid in a state roughly divided between Democrats and Republicans. Nevada has backed Democrats in many statewide elections, last voting for a Republican president in 2004. But Republicans flipped the governorship in 2022, and polls show that Nevada is among the most competitive states on the presidential level, bolstering hopes Rosen's seat could come into play.
Even so, recent polls show each Republican candidate trailing Rosen, with just a little over a month until the primary on June 11, 2024.
Nevada is viewed as a must-win state for Democrats to hold the Senate, as political experts view the 2024 Senate map as favoring Republicans, who are widely expected to flip at least one seat in West Virginia. Several seats held by Democrats are viewed as highly competitive, while only one or two Republican-held seats are viewed as somewhat competitive ahead of November.
Several Republicans are running in the Nevada primary. Recent head-to-heads show Rosen lead the top candidates, including U.S. Army veteran and businessman Sam Brown, former U.S. ambassador to Iceland Dr. Jeff Gunter and former state assemblyman Jim Marchant.
The most recent independent poll on the election comes from Emerson College.
In that poll, which surveyed 1,000 registered voters from April 25 to 29, Rosen led Brown by 8 percentage points and Gunter by 14 percentage points.
In a hypothetical matchup, 45 percent of Nevada respondents said they would vote for Rosen over Brown, while 37 percent said they would support Brown. In a matchup with Gunter, Rosen received support from 47 percent of respondents, while 33 percent are planning to vote for Gunter.
Gunter responded to the poll in a statement to Newsweek.
"Once we win in November, I will have not only defeated the Democrats but also the D.C. elites masquerading as MAGA supporters. I am confident that with the unity of our party under the leadership of President Trump, and with the Senate campaign arm rallying to our cause post-primary, we will succeed. Our mission is clear—to unseat Jacky Rosen, ensure President Trump fires Joe Biden, and restore the greatness of America," he wrote.
The poll had a margin of error of plus or minus 3 percentage points.
Meanwhile, a Noble Predictive Insights poll from March similarly showed Rosen with a lead.
Rosen led Brown by six percentage points, by a margin of 41-35. She held a 9-point lead over Marchant, a margin of 43-34, according to the survey.
That poll also showed Brown leading Marchant in a head-to-head matchup of the Republican primary, garnering support from 39 percent of respondents, compared to 26 percent who said they planned to vote for Marchant.
The poll surveyed 829 registered voters from February 27 to March 5 and had a margin of error of plus or minus 3.4 percentage points.
The Cook Political Report, an organization that tracks elections across the United States, classifies the race as a toss-up. Three other seats—Arizona, Montana and Ohio—are considered toss-ups at this point.
Newsweek reached out to the Rosen, Brown, Gunter and Marchant campaigns for comment via email.
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Andrew Stanton is a Newsweek weekend reporter based in Maine. His role is reporting on U.S. politics and social issues. ... Read more
