Former President Donald Trump is flipping President Joe Biden voters since the 2020 election and it could pay dividends in an anticipated nail-biter of an election this November, according to a pollster who spoke with Newsweek.
A new national poll from the University of North Florida's Public Opinion Research Lab (PORL) shows Trump leading Biden 47 to 45 percent, with 4 percent saying they would vote for another candidate and 2 percent responding that they wouldn't vote at all. Meanwhile, 3 percent said they don't know or refused to answer.
Perhaps more alarming to the Biden campaign is the number of Biden voters in 2020 who are considering voting for Trump in this year's election.
Approximately 94 percent of anticipated 2024 Biden voters voted for him in 2020, while 2 percent of 2024 Biden voters voted for Trump in 2020. On the same token, 7 percent of expected Trump 2024 voters voted for Biden in 2020 and 84 percent of Trump 2024 voters stuck by his side in 2020.
Michael Binder, faculty director at PORL, told Newsweek via phone that the numbers are a "big deal" and that 6 percent of Biden voters considering voting for Trump could have a major impact in what have been notoriously close presidential elections.
"Biden was plus-six [percentage points] in 2020 vote totals," Binder said. "It's not like this is a [polling] sample laden with a bunch of Republicans. If you're a Democrat I'd be worried."
The survey of 745 likely voters from across the country was conducted from April 8 to 20. The margin of error is plus or minus 4.2 percentage points.
The election rematch is less than seven months away, and Biden and Trump are attempting to appeal to wider swaths of voters while each are navigating a series of policy and legal issues that are causing consternation among the American electorate.
Biden's been continually ridiculed by opponents for his administration's response or lack thereof to illegal immigration. More recently, he's has had to navigate the political and foreign policy implications of the ongoing Israel-Hamas war and domestic protests across a series of college campuses that critics have deemed antisemitic.
Trump faces myriad legal challenges stemming from a series of criminal charges. His hush money trial in Manhattan continues as three other possible trials could hypothetically commence prior to Election Day. The former president has maintained his innocence in all cases.
"Some of those folks who voted for Trump were Republicans or independents," Binder said. "They're looking around and maybe don't like inflation, or they're maybe returning home to their party. It's also true that voters don't have long-term memories and may look back with rose-colored glasses."
A silver lining in the poll for Biden is the effect of a Trump conviction in one or more of his criminal trials, which could potentially turn off enough Republicans and independents to help the incumbent secure a second term.
When respondents were asked how a conviction would affect their vote, 67 percent remained steadfast and said it would have no impact. Another 24 percent said they'd be less likely to vote for Trump, while 7 percent expressed more support for him.
However, 9 percent of Trump voters responded that they would be less likely to support a convicted candidate.
"Elections are close and if you lose 9 percent—heck, even 6 percent—that's gonna be problematic," Binder said.
Another 27 percent of independent voters said they would feel less inclined to vote for Trump if convicted.
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Nick Mordowanec is a Newsweek reporter based in Michigan. His focus is reporting on Ukraine and Russia, along with social ... Read more
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