These 3 Groups Are Least Likely to Vote in 2024 Election

Matthew Foster, a 27-year-old who lives with his family in Pigeon Forge, Tennessee, doesn't plan to vote in the presidential election next year.

Foster, who has some college experience but left school for a job opportunity, feels detached from the political process, telling Newsweek that "it's just not something that's on my radar."

Foster's disinterest in politics is representative of a broader issue resonating with many young Americans that was identified in a Tufts University Center for Information and Research on Civic Learning and Engagement (CIRCLE) study. The university's research issued at the end of November suggests that Black youths, rural nonwhite youths and youths without college experience are among the least likely to vote.

Youths, defined in the CIRCLE study as ages 18 to 34, show varying degrees of political engagement, with just 57 percent saying they're "extremely likely" to vote.

The study found that the likelihood of voting dips to 48 percent for rural nonwhite youths, 44 percent among Black youths and 41 percent for those without college experience, groups less informed about the election and lacking support to participate.

Newsweek reached out to CIRCLE via email for comment.

As for candidate preferences, among youth certain to vote, CIRCLE found that 51 percent favor a Democratic candidate to 30 percent for a Republican, with 16 percent undecided. However, echoing his father's political leanings, Foster said that if he were to vote, "it'd probably be Republican."

Among youths who do intend to cast a ballot, Newsweek spoke with Rachel Nguyen, a 25-year-old college graduate originally from Tampa, Florida, who now lives in Chicago.

"I'm definitely voting. Our voices have to be heard, especially with everything that's at stake right now," Nguyen said, contrasting with Foster's indifference.

The study found that the preference for a Democratic candidate persists across the board at 51 percent, and nearly one-third of all youths remain undecided.

The study also highlighted that recent engagement in elections plays a significant role in voting likelihood, with 86 percent of youths who voted in 2020 extremely likely to vote in 2024. Nguyen confirmed that she voted in the 2020 presidential election, saying she felt a "duty to do so."

The findings offer an early indicator of potential voter turnout, CIRCLE said, revealing where long-standing social and civic inequities may continue unless actively addressed. For instance, the study noted that tailored voter education and community engagement initiatives could prove pivotal for higher turnout among the groups.

With economic pressures at the forefront, CIRCLE suggests that policies directly addressing job security and living costs could galvanize youth participation, potentially tipping the scales in the upcoming election as Gen Z and the youngest Millennials make up nearly one-fifth of the electorate.