Donald Trump is projected to win more than 300 electoral votes in the 2024 election by flipping a number of key swing states from President Joe Biden, according to forecasters.
Analysis from Decision Desk HQ based on polling across the country predicts that Trump, the expected 2024 Republican presidential nominee, will win a total of 312 Electoral votes in November, the biggest number a GOP candidate has received since George H. W. Bush's 1988 victory when he received 426 votes.
The estimates are the latest worrying sign for Biden as he seeks re-election. The president has long faced concerns about his low approval ratings, as well as voters believing the 81-year-old is too old for a second term in office. Former President Trump himself is also facing the prospect of being a convicted felon by November as he faces 91 criminal charges across four trials, with polls suggesting this could damage his bid to re-enter the White House.
According to Decision Desk HQ's predictions, Trump is currently on course to win a number of swing states that Biden flipped in 2020, including Arizona and Nevada.
Crucially, Trump is also on course to win the so-called "Blue Wall" states of Michigan, Wisconsin and Pennsylvania, which would put him well on his way to clinch the 270 electoral votes needed to win the next election.
Newsweek reached out to Trump's team and the White House via email for comment.
Liberty Vittert, a statistician and Professor of the Practice of Data Science at the Olin Business School at Washington University in St. Louis explained in a Decision Desk HQ video just how important these three swing states are to anyone hoping to win a general election.
"Wisconsin, Michigan and Pennsylvania all went to Trump by less than a point in 2016 and then flipped back in favor of Biden by very narrow margins in 2020. They proved decisive in both of those elections," Vittert said.
"Had Hillary Clinton held the states in 2016, she would have defeated Trump, and had Biden failed to flip these back in 2020, Trump would be in a second term right now."
Vittert said that if Trump does flip the Blue Wall states in November as predicted, as well as hold on to states that are leaning Republican, Trump wouldn't even need to win any of the other swing states in the Sunbelt. Trump is currently leading in the Sunbelt, which is currently being held by Biden.
If the other predictions are correct, Vittert said that Biden would need a "miracle" in Florida and Georgia in order to "have a sniff" at achieving the 270 electoral vote threshold in November.
According to national average polling from Decision Desk HQ and The Hill, Trump has a 2.2 percent lead over Biden (44.8 to 42.6 percent) based on 572 surveys.
The 312 electoral votes Trump is predicted to win would be more than the 306 Biden achieved in 2020, as well as the 304 Trump was awarded during his 2016 election victory over Clinton.
The largest-ever presidential victory in terms of electoral votes was achieved by Ronald Reagan in 1984, who won 525 out of the possible 538 electoral votes after winning all but one of the 50 states in a resounding victory over Walter Mondale.
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Newsweek is committed to challenging conventional wisdom and finding connections in the search for common ground.
About the writer
Ewan Palmer is a Newsweek News Reporter based in London, U.K. His focus is reporting on US politics, domestic policy ... Read more
