The recent legislative elections and ballot amendments in states like Ohio and Virginia are wake-up calls for the Republican Party, highlighting the need to recalibrate our communication strategies surrounding cultural battles and the MAGA brand ahead of November's elections.
Our challenges are multi-faceted. Last November's 57 percent vote to enshrine abortion rights in Ohio's state constitution casts a spotlight on the GOP's difficulties following the Dobbs decision. This outcome, particularly in a traditionally conservative state, underscores a notable shift in public sentiment.
The electoral landscape was mixed in Virginia, where the Republican Party's unified messaging bore fruit in legislative races within districts President Biden won by 8 points or less in 2020. However, the party encountered significant resistance around women's issues and allegations of political radicalism in suburbs that closely mirror pivotal 2024 regions. The results in Virginia and Ohio highlight a wider strategic challenge for Republicans that demands immediate attention.
The first step in addressing the public perceptions of Republicans' stance on abortion restrictions is to get a handle on the basics: Americans generally favor some limits on abortion. As an October 2022 WPA Intelligence poll found, by a two-to-one margin, voters see no restrictions on abortion as "more extreme" than limiting it with exceptions for rape, incest, and the mother's life.
Additionally, an August 2022 WPA Intelligence poll indicated that 62 percent of likely voters support limiting abortion to 15 weeks or earlier, similar to the European standard. This suggests a public preference for moderate abortion policies—with a caveat: The same poll found that 44 percent of Americans mistakenly thought the Supreme Court has outlawed abortion nationwide, and half of those voters think Republicans also want to ban contraceptives. This misinformation makes it easier for Democrats to foster distrust towards Republicans.
To understand why Democrats are currently winning the abortion messaging war, consider the successful Republican response to Obamacare that resonated across party lines: "Don't let the government get between you and your doctor." Now, Democrats are flipping this script against pro-life measures and GOP candidates. No woman wants politicians meddling in her medical choices, especially when those same politicians often fail to convey empathy or a basic understanding of female anatomy. Although this logic overlooks the moral, scientific, and spiritual merits of pro-life positions, Republicans cannot afford to ignore it.
At its core, the debate over abortion transcends the issue itself. Voters who feel strongly on this issue have already made up their minds about how they plan to vote for the foreseeable future. But Democrats are effectively leveraging the abortion issue to reach voters in the middle who are neither staunchly pro-choice nor pro-life, to make Republican candidates seem unfit for public office. In this context, abortion is less of a public policy litmus test, and more of a referendum on character.
Case in point: After abortion, Virginia Democrats' ads turned to "MAGA extremism," which proved effective, especially in suburban areas. This approach capitalizes on college-educated voters' pre-existing uneasiness with Donald Trump to cast doubts on the trustworthiness of all Republicans.
As we saw in Virginia, one way of rebuilding trust is by aligning pro-life views with pro-women policies, including enhanced prenatal and postnatal care, affordable and dependable childcare, parental leave, and financial support during pregnancy. This provides voters with a more appealing platform that resonates with their values and counters accusations of extremism by demonstrating a genuine commitment to the well-being of families.
Heading into the 2024 cycle, the Republican Party must craft clear, effective messaging to counter misinformation and rebuild trust. Our communications must proactively articulate a vision of empathy, reasonableness, and a commitment to addressing the needs of all Americans. This approach should bolster our rapport with voters and solidify our platform against the political and financial onslaughts ahead.
The lessons for the GOP from Virginia and Ohio are clear: prioritize policies that support women and directly confront trust issues and misinformation.
Republicans must refine our messaging to resonate across a diverse electorate and present a cohesive front that balances core principles with the evolving political landscape. If we fail to adapt, we will lose up and down the ballot. The stakes are that high.
Amanda Iovino is a Principal at WPA Intelligence, and has served as the Polling Director and led the data efforts for Governor Glenn Youngkin's 2021 Virginia gubernatorial campaign. She specializes in working with women candidates, and helping Republicans better connect with women voters.
The views expressed in this article are the writer's own.
Uncommon Knowledge
Newsweek is committed to challenging conventional wisdom and finding connections in the search for common ground.
Newsweek is committed to challenging conventional wisdom and finding connections in the search for common ground.
