Russia's Wagner Group Is Too Big to Fail in Africa—and Putin Knows It

While the dust settles from the Wagner Group's abortive march on Moscow in protest of military decisions made throughout the ongoing war in Ukraine, officials and experts acknowledge that the private military company continues to play a pivotal role in achieving the Kremlin's policy aims abroad, especially in Africa.

And even with the fate of Wagner Group chief Yevgeny Prigozhin ultimately uncertain, the vast network that the influential business mogul-turned-paramilitary leader has established spanning thousands of miles across continents is unlikely to collapse anytime soon.

"Russia's Ministry of Defense and other Russian security agencies have neither capacity nor will to replace Wagner, which has come to possess extensive physical and logical infrastructure in Africa," Sergey Kostelyanyets, head of the Center of Sociological and Political Studies at the Russian Academy of Sciences' Institute for African Studies, told Newsweek.

"We may see rebranding of these assets or reestablishment of Wagner as a more independent entity, which, however, will continue to serve the interests of the global anti-Western—looking to change the status quo—movement," he added.

The Wagner Group arose out of a demand for pro-Russian irregular military operations in Ukraine's eastern Donbas region after Moscow-aligned separatists first staged a rebellion in 2014. Nine years later, the paramilitary outfit remains active in what erupted last year into a full-scale war, the handling of which has stoked tensions between an openly critical Prigozhin and the top brass of the Russian Ministry of Defense.

But outside of Ukraine, the Wagner Group found extensive work in the midst of other conflicts in Syria and Libya, and it has expanded across Sub-Saharan Africa, partnering with local governments that have come to reject Western intervention in their counterterrorism efforts.

"Wagner has served its purpose of discrediting Western—particularly French—counterinsurgency approaches in the Sahel and Central Africa and revealing neocolonial malpractices," Kostelyanyets said.

The strategy has come at a potential cost, however. Kostelyanyets noted that "further association of Russia's Africa policy with mercenaries subject to various sanctions and designated as terrorists by a number of countries may have been counterproductive."

"Besides," he added, "the goals of Wagner have never significantly diverged in Africa from Moscow's interests, but its methods may have been deemed excessive."

Backlash in the West

Such reported excesses have garnered the Wagner Group notoriety among Western governments. After years of accusing the organization of abuses including torture, arbitrary killings and the smuggling of resources, the United States branded the Wagner Group a transnational criminal organization in January.

On Tuesday, the U.S. Treasury Department imposed additional sanctions against four companies, two based in the Central African Republic and one each based in the United Arab Emirates and Russia, along with one Mali-based Russian national, all allegedly tied to the Wagner Group and Prigozhin.

An accompanying statement alleged that the Wagner Group "exploits insecurity around the world, committing atrocities and criminal acts that threaten the safety, good governance, prosperity, and human rights of nations, as well as exploiting their natural resources."

That same day, the U.S. State Department issued an advisory "in light of increasingly concerning reporting related to the role of illicit actors in the gold trade, including the Wagner Group."

Contacted for comment, a State Department spokesperson told Newsweek that "the United States will continue to take actions against those who threaten peace and security in Africa, as well as those who provide revenue to Russia, enabling the Kremlin to continue its aggression against Ukraine."

A New Empire in Africa

But at a time when a number of African nations have been expressing growing criticism of the role of France, other Western countries and even multinational U.N. Peacekeeping missions, the Wagner Group has continued to operate openly in countries such as the Central African Republic and Mali.

In Sudan, the organization's role has become complicated since clashes broke out between the Sudanese Armed Forces (SAF) and its paramilitary Rapid Support Forces (RSF) faction in April. An RSF spokesperson told Newsweek that the SAF, including the RSF, "signed a training agreement" with the Wagner Group under the administration of former President Omar al-Bashir that granted rights to gold mining through a Sudanese military-owned company, but that the RSF has not independently maintained "any business relation nor military relation" with the Wagner Group since Bashir was ousted from power in 2019.

A report shared with Newsweek by the RSF additionally alleged that "recently uncovered Wagner documents prove what many people in Sudan have known for years: a close relationship still exists between Wagner and the SAF."

"Wagner has been training SAF soldiers for years, pays the SAF to use Sudan's military bases to move its soldiers and cargo around the country, and senior Wagner officers serve in SAF command centers and coordinate with the SAF, the police, and the intelligence services," the RSF report said.

The allegations came after the U.S. Treasury Department accused the Wagner Group last month of supplying the RSF with surface-to-air missiles in its ongoing fight against the SAF. Newsweek has reached out to the SAF and the press service of Prigozhin's Concord Management and Consulting company for comment.

The Wagner Group has also reportedly established a military, political or economic presence or has sought to establish such a foothold in Burkina Faso, Cameroon, the Democratic Republic of the Congo, Eritrea, Equatorial Guinea, Madagascar, Mozambique and Zimbabwe, along with several other suspected sites in Africa.

Former colonist France, on the other hand, has withdrawn troops over the past year from Burkina Faso, the Central African Republic and Mali, as ties with local governments collapsed. More rallies have since been held in Chad, the Democratic Republic of the Congo and Niger in support of Moscow and against Paris.

Partners of Choice

While the Russian government has long maintained distance from the Wagner Group, Putin has occasionally acknowledged its ties to the Kremlin, including during an address Tuesday to military personnel in which the Russian leader said that his government allocated up to $1 billion in funds to the organization between May 2022 and May 2023. He also extolled the group's professionalism and bravery in Ukraine.

But in remarks delivered on the previous day, Putin offered Wagner Group personnel involved in the recent insurrection three choices: sign a contract with the Russian military or other law enforcement agencies, return to their homes or relocate to Belarus, where Prigozhin was last known to be.

Also on Monday, Russian Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov told the state-run RT outlet that the Wagner Group's work in Africa, especially the Central African Republic and Mali, "will continue." The top Russian diplomat took the opportunity to criticize the West as well, saying such services had been requested "at a time when the CAR and Mali had been abandoned by the French and other Europeans who withdrew their anti-terrorist contingents and closed down military bases that were supposed to sustain the fight against terrorism."

Responding to Newsweek's question during a press conference Wednesday, Russian Foreign Ministry spokesperson Maria Zakharova said that the continued presence of Wagner Group personnel in Africa was a matter to be decided by host countries.

"We have always highlighted that African countries themselves, their leadership, political leaders contacted specialists, experts and instructors, they signed contracts with them and they invited them to their territory," Zakharova said. "And what is important is that they haven't made political assessments about their work, but they were highlighting the professional skills of the people they were hiring to carry out difficult tasks."

"This is a sovereign right of states to invite and sign contracts with those who are effective and most useful," she added.

"A Sacred Space Is Never Empty"

Zakharova also emphasized Putin's recognition of the valor of the majority of the group's fighters, many of whom she said "were unaware of the goals" put forth by a select group of conspirators during Saturday's events. Conflating the alleged few behind the plot with the entirety of the Wagner Group was "dangerous," she argued.

"They have shown their skills in Syria and African states, and they have shown their professionalism there," Zakharova said. "These are the merits and heroism of people who sacrificed their lives without thinking what damage they're causing to themselves signing contracts for lofty ideals."

As for the goals of the Wagner Group in Africa, she reiterated Lavrov's words that it was France that "abandoned" the Central African Republic and Mali, challenging the notion that the organization "pushed or expelled Western military from the African countries."

"We can recall our saying, 'A sacred space is never empty,'" Zakharova said, using a Russian-language phrase often cited to convey that vacuums of power and influence will always be filled.

But one European official with whom Newsweek spoke on the condition of anonymity argued this narrative gaining traction in Africa was part of a "disinformation" campaign being waged by Moscow utilizing both state-run outlets and social media networks that were "boosting anti-Western sentiment" on the continent. In this environment, the European official argued that the Wagner Group was able to engage in transactional deals that benefitted only local leadership while enriching the organization through the host nation's natural resources.

"It's a non-democratic way of maintaining their power," the European official said, "and, for Russia, it's a cheap policy to grow their influence in Africa."

The European official noted that Wagner Group contingents often number in the thousands and include non-Russian nationals. Reports have suggested recruitment efforts taking place as far away as Norway, Nepal and the U.S.

In the fallout from the recent unrest in Russia, the European official said that, "we, as Europeans, follow very precisely the situation in Africa and the consequences that the situation in Russia can have on the ground there." The source added that when considered together, they "raise a question of reliability" as to "whether the discrepancy between Wagner and Russia authorities will have an impact in terms of support to the regimes."

Blurred Lines

The European official also pointed to apparent shifts in the Kremlin's narrative regarding the Wagner Group's connection to the Russian government, noting that it was "ironic" how, for years, "the Russian authorities were saying that they had nothing to do with them, and they're doing exactly the opposite now" in portraying the group as subservient to the state.

Marcel Plichta, a former U.S. Defense Department analyst who is currently a fellow at the Center for Global Law and Governance at the University of Saint Andrews' School of International Relations, argued that this unofficial status served as an integral part of the Wagner Group's dynamic.

"Wagner acts—or perhaps acted—as a deniable service the Russian government could offer countries that struggled to ensure regime security and train its military and were not happy with their traditional security partners," Plichta told Newsweek.

"Politically, this gave Moscow a low-risk 'in' with these countries, many of whom didn't have much in the way of a formal relationship with Russia in the post-Cold War era," he added. "Bringing in Wagner also supports arms sales/transfers, for instance Mali and CAR both use and purchased Russian-made weapons."

But even with this distinction now becoming obscured, Plichta argued that recent remarks by officials such as Lavrov show "how hesitant they are to remove, replace, or re-hat" the Wagner Group.

"The Russian government is clearly unsure how to get around the fact that Prigozhin's network—both Wagner and the propaganda entities—benefits him in key African countries," Plichta said. "Simply removing them would cause a rupture in relations and worsen the security and humanitarian situations in CAR and Mali specifically."

A Land of Opportunity

These relationships between Russian and African states have become a growing priority for Moscow as it seeks to boost ties across the Global South in the face of a Western sanctions campaign over the war in Ukraine. Such ties rooted in what Zakharova described Wednesday as a "very frank and very trustful dialogue" are expected to be on full display at the Russia-Africa Summit set to be held next month in Saint Petersburg.

In this endeavor, Philani Mthembu, executive director of the University of South Africa-associated Institute for Global Dialogue and co-founder of the Berlin Forum on Global Politics, told Newsweek that the Wagner Group "has been important in security cooperation, carving out a niche in countries where the central authority is struggling to assert a high degree of sovereignty over their territories."

"The provision of security services has allowed Wagner to get involved in other economic sectors, depending on the country they are operating in," Mthembu said. "It has also allowed Russia to extend its footprint in a region it had largely withdrawn from after the fall of the Soviet Union."

"While agreements are between Wagner and the government of respective countries," he added, "these certainly complement the official efforts amongst the respective governments and Russia when the Kremlin is seeking to deepen relations with Africa through the Russia-Africa Summit and other modes of cooperation."

Echoing both Kostelyanyets and Plichta, Mthembu noted that these efforts came amid a prevailing perception of disappointment with Western security intervention as a number of African nations continue to struggle with insurgencies and political instability.

The Wagner Group, Mthembu argued, has "been willing to fill a security vacuum left by the departure of certain Western countries, especially France," and has managed to do so "on relatively flexible terms that seek to bolster the security and ability to project force of the governing elites, some of whom face insurgencies fueled by various historic and contemporary dynamics and grievances."

While Lavrov had earlier dismissed reports of "panic" among African partners as a result of the Prigozhin-led mutiny over the weekend, Mthembu argued that leaders on the continent have been put at ease over the apparent stabilization of the situation in Russia and assurances that the Wagner Group would continue its work abroad.

"Officials and analysts are mostly relieved that the recent unrest in Russia has been mostly resolved," he added, "with clear communication that Wagner's presence would not be negatively affected despite changes in its relationship with the official security services of the Russian Federation."