Manhattan District Attorney Alvin Bragg is struggling to change Americans' minds about whether former President Donald Trump is guilty in his hush money payment case, according to a new poll.
Bragg last year charged Trump, the presumptive 2024 Republican presidential nominee, on a 34-count indictment for allegedly making the payment to adult film actor Stormy Daniels ahead of the 2016 election.
His office accused Trump of paying Daniels to prevent her from making public comments about her allegations of an affair with the former president, which he has denied. Trump has pleaded not guilty to all charges and has accused Bragg of targeting him for political purposes.
Jury selection in the case began on Monday, as Trump is poised to become the first former president to be tried on criminal charges.
However, a new poll from the Associated Press and NORC Center for Public Affairs suggests most Americans are still unsure about whether Trump is guilty in this case, showing little movement since the poll was conducted in August 2023.
In total, 35 percent of Americans believe Trump acted illegally in this case, while 31 percent said they believed he acted unethically, but not necessarily illegally. Fourteen percent said he did nothing wrong, while 19 percent said they do not know enough about the case to make a decision.
It remains to be seen whether more Americans will change their mind about whether Trump is guilty as the case heads to trial in the coming weeks when prosecutors will make their case to a jury about the alleged crimes.
The poll was conducted from April 4-8 among 1,204 adults.
Grant Davis Reeher, a professor of political science at Syracuse University, told Newsweek on Wednesday that "Trump fatigue" amid his various legal cases could be why many Americans are not following this case as closely.
"Most citizens do not have the inclination or the bandwidth to follow the ins and outs of the former president's legal troubles with the same ardor of the press," he said. "Long ago they probably concluded that Trump has legal problems and is involved in a lot of deep political conflicts, and they may be putting news about developments in that realm into that mental box, without giving it much additional thought."
The case may hurt him if something "really salacious" comes out of it, but the "main drag" on Trump will likely be the time and resources it diverts from his presidential campaign, Reeher said.
Newsweek reached out to Bragg's office and the Trump campaign for comment via email.
Only a small number of Americans have been convinced Trump is guilty since August, according to the poll.
In August, 34 percent of poll respondents said they believe Trump is guilty, while 38 percent said he acted unethically but not illegally. Fourteen percent said he did nothing wrong, while 13 percent said they did not know enough.
The earlier poll was conducted among 1,165 adults from August 10-14, 2023.
According to the latest poll, more Americans believe Trump is guilty in his other criminal cases, though Trump maintains and pleaded not guilty to all charges in each case.
In the classified documents case, 47 percent of Americans believe he is guilty.
Meanwhile, 47 percent believe he is guilty in the Georgia election interference case, while 45 percent believe his guilty in the federal case into whether he illegally tried to overturn the results of the 2020 presidential election.
Jury selection is expected to continue this week on Thursday and Friday, with a break scheduled for Wednesday. On Tuesday, the second day of jury selection, seven jurors were selected and sworn in. In total, 12 will be chosen, along with six alternates.
Update 4/17/24, 10:23 a.m. ET: This article was updated with additional information.
Uncommon Knowledge
Newsweek is committed to challenging conventional wisdom and finding connections in the search for common ground.
Newsweek is committed to challenging conventional wisdom and finding connections in the search for common ground.
About the writer
Andrew Stanton is a Newsweek weekend reporter based in Maine. His role is reporting on U.S. politics and social issues. ... Read more
