Intense fighting continues around the eastern Ukrainian city of Avdiivka as Russian forces advance with high reported losses, while Kyiv pivots to a defensive winter strategy and Moscow ramps up its nationwide bombing campaign.
The Institute for the Study of War's Tuesday evening update noted "confirmed advances" of Russian units northeast of Kupyansk in the northeastern Luhansk Oblast, and north of Bakhmut and southwest of Avdiivka in the Donetsk Oblast. Moscow's troops also "continued positional meeting engagements along the entire line of contact," the ISW wrote.
Some of the most intense fighting along the 600-mile front is taking place in Avdiivka, a heavily fortified Ukrainian city that since 2014 has been at the forefront of Kyiv's battles with Moscow and Kremlin-controlled local separatists.
Russian forces are currently advancing around the flanks of the settlement, which sits just outside the Russian-occupied Donbas city of Donetsk.
"Geolocated footage posted on December 18 shows that Russian forces made a marginal gain just north of Pervomaiske," ISW's bulletin read, referring to a settlement about six miles southwest of Avdiivka. Pervomaiske is on the southern edge of the Ukrainian-held salient now jutting into Russian lines following recent advances by Moscow's units.
"Additional geolocated footage posted on December 19 shows that Russian forces have also marginally advanced in the quarry area southwest of Avdiivka," the think tank added.
Newsweek was unable to independently verify the latest battlefield movements and has contacted the Russian defense ministry by email to request comment.
Russia appears to be trying to close a noose around Avdiivka, bringing the western approach routes to the embattled city under fire control and preventing reinforcements. Russian forces used the same approach to take the Donetsk city of Bakhmut earlier this year, though they destroyed the city and suffered huge casualties in doing so.
Oleksandr Merezhko, a member of the Ukrainian parliament and the chair of the body's foreign affairs committee, told Newsweek in October that Moscow "might be trying to repeat the situation with Bakhmut, and it's ready to sacrifice lots of its human lives."
A Russian capture of Avdiivka would pose new dangers for Ukraine in the Donetsk region, potentially opening up a route to the Ukrainian city of Kramatorsk—since 2014 the administrative capital of the Ukrainian-controlled Donetsk region—43 miles to the north.
Losing the city would also be a significant political blow, given the storied position of Avdiivka in the history of Ukraine's war against Russia and its local separatist allies in the Donbas region.
In its Wednesday morning update, Ukraine's General Staff said Kyiv's defenders "continue to restrain the enemy" in their efforts to "surround" Avdiivka. "Our soldiers are steadfastly holding the defense, causing the occupiers significant losses," the General Staff said.
The ISW cited Russian milblogger reports of tactical Russian successes southwest of the city, as well as sources claiming that Moscow's units are trying to push Ukrainian forces out of defensive positions in the Avdiivka Coke Plant, a sprawling industrial facility on the northwestern outskirts of the city now largely destroyed by the fighting.
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David Brennan is Newsweek's Diplomatic Correspondent covering world politics and conflicts from London with a focus on NATO, the European ... Read more
