Is China Behind Balticconnector Pipeline 'Sabotage?' What We Know

The anchor of a Chinese cargo vessel may have been damaged in an incident that had prompted speculation of sabotage.

On October 8, Finland's President Sauli Niinistö said the rupture to the Balticconnector gas pipeline and two telecom cables had been caused by "external activity," with Finnish media pointing the finger at Russia, which has denied involvement.

One expert told Newsweek that both China and Russia could benefit from the incident, which occurred during a time of high tension between Moscow and NATO. Finland is the alliance's newest member.

Finland's National Bureau of Investigation (NBI) said Wednesday it had retrieved a six-ton lost anchor from the seabed location. Its data pointed to a different culprit—the Hong Kong-flagged cargo vessel Newnew Polar Bear.

The telecoms cable breach took place in Estonian waters, while the damage to the gas pipeline was believed to have happened in Finnish waters.

Investigation lead, Detective Superintendent Risto Lohi, said that there were traces in the anchor "which indicate that it has been in contact with the gas pipeline" linking the Finnish town of Inkoo with the Estonian port of Paldiski. The probe would look into whether it was intentional or caused by bad seafaring.

Tom O'Donnell, an energy and geopolitical analyst based in Berlin, told Newsweek that the explanation that an anchor had caused the damage would be consistent with earlier reports that there was no explosion and that a heavy object had been retrieved.

"If the anchor was being dragged, it is also consistent with the partial damage to the telecommunication cable. If this is found not to be purposeful damage, this will be a big relief to Estonia, Finland, and NATO generally, as it is not an escalation of Moscow's energy war against Europe," O'Donnell said, referring to how before its invasion of Ukraine, Moscow started to withhold gas needed to fill European Union storage for the winter of 2021-2022.

"On the other hand, even if this damage was unintentional, it points to already very nervous EU gas supply and telecommunications business concerns and their NATO-member states," he said.

It also showed how easily physical sabotage on a massive scale could be perpetrated by Russia, which is "already striving to undermine the EU economy using the energy weapon," he added.

It comes amid claims and counterclaims between Moscow and the West over the explosions on the Nord Stream gas pipelines in September 2022 between Russia and Germany under the Baltic Sea, which are still being investigated. Moscow accused the United States of involvement, while a Swedish investigation found evidence of detonations, pointing to sabotage.

Meanwhile, Finnish investigators said they have tried contacting the ship's captain to no avail and are now cooperating with Chinese officials. The Chinese Foreign Ministry said on Wednesday it would provide all necessary information on the incident, which has not affected energy supplies to Finland.

Sari Arho Havrén, a visiting researcher at the University of Helsinki and associate fellow at the Royal United Services Institute (RUSI), told Newsweek that while the investigation continues and anchors have broken underwater cables before, "we still don't know whether the damage was intentional."

She said that the European Centre of Excellence for Countering Hybrid Threats in Helsinki has indicated it would examine whether, under international law, the owners of the ship would be liable for damages.

"Whether this incident was intentional or not, it is something that Russia and China could benefit from," Arho Havrén said. "Even if the scale may be small, it once again diverts the alliance's attention and resources away from other global focal points."