Putin Ally Makes Surprise Nuclear Move

Belarusian leader Alexander Lukashenko on Tuesday announced a surprise nuclear readiness inspection, a move likely intended to bolster ally and neighbor Russia's attempt to coerce the West against providing additional assistance to Ukraine, according to a think tank.

The Institute for the Study of War (ISW), a Washington D.C.-based think tank, in its latest analysis of the conflict in Ukraine on Tuesday weighed in on Lukashenko's move to conduct sudden checks on the readiness of his military to deploy tactical nuclear weapons.

Lukashenko is a close ally of Russian President Vladimir Putin. Belarus, a former Soviet Union republic, has maintained strong relations with Russia since the Russian leader launched a full-scale invasion of Ukraine in February 2022.

In January, the Belarusian president announced that Russian nuclear weapons, controlled by Moscow, had arrived in Belarus. Lukashenko said last month that "several dozen" tactical nuclear weapons from Russia had been deployed in his country. The drills will involve those weapons.

Newsweek has contacted the Belarusian Ministry of Foreign Affairs for comment by email.

The surprise nuclear readiness inspection is likely "part of the Kremlin's re-intensified reflexive control campaign targeting Western decision-making," the ISW said.

It is "likely meant to bolster the Kremlin's effort to coerce the West into self-deterring from providing additional military assistance to Ukraine," the think tank stated, pointing to the timing of the announcement.

A day earlier, Putin ordered tactical nuclear weapons drills in response to what his defense ministry described as provocative statements and threats from the West. The Kremlin last week condemned French President Emmanuel Macron for reaffirming that he wouldn't rule out deploying Western troops in Ukraine, and U.K. Foreign Minister David Cameron for saying that Ukraine has the right to use British weapons to conduct strikes on Russian soil.

Belarus' Defense Minister Viktor Khrenin said that during the drills, "the entire range of activities from planning, preparation and use of strikes with tactical nuclear weapons will be checked." They will involve a squadron of Su-25 aircraft and an Iskander missile division.

While Belarus hasn't directly joined the Ukraine conflict, Russian troops have been allowed to perform exercises on Belarusian territory since before the beginning of the war. The country was used by Russia to launch its invasion of Ukraine.

The ISW noted that Lukashenko "reiterated standard rhetoric regarding Belarusian doctrine on the deterrent use of nuclear weapons and his desire to avoid entering the war against Ukraine."

"ISW continues to assess that neither Russia nor Belarus seeks nuclear escalation and that their use of nuclear weapons remains unlikely," the think tank said.

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