The Biden Administration's Approach to Mexico is Deeply Broken | Opinion

The relationship between the United States and Mexico is at one of its most tense moments in recent memory. Two Americans were killed on March 3 in Matamoros shortly after crossing the border, caught in the middle of a gunfight involving the Gulf Cartel. On March 14, Mexican navy troops and police seized a quarry and port facility owned by a U.S. company without legal justification. These events, paired with Mexican President Andrés Manuel López Obrador's (AMLO) preposterous denials that fentanyl is produced in Mexico, only reinforced the instinct of many Americans that the U.S. approach to our southern neighbor is deeply broken.

The U.S.-Mexico relationship—one of the most important for the homeland and economic security of the American people—is in a worse place today than when President Joe Biden took office. Yet in public, the Biden administration boasts of its recent "success" in addressing security challenges and emphasizing the importance of continued cooperation. This attitude glosses over the enormous challenges facing the United States in Mexico, presenting meetings and joint statements alone as marks of progress. Further, the administration's tepid response to actions that worsen the security crisis and hurt U.S. companies only emboldens AMLO, signaling that the administration will not take firm action to defend U.S. interests.

Given the domestic political focus on the border and security issues in Mexico, the Biden administration has made it a priority to highlight its bilateral efforts in public messaging. At the center of those efforts is the Bicentennial Framework for Security, Public Health, and Safe Communities, which replaces the AMLO-rejected Mérida Initiative and focuses on bolstering citizen security and dismantling transborder criminal networks. While in only its second year, officials from both countries have already "recognized the success of the Bicentennial Framework" in fostering security cooperation, including counter-fentanyl efforts.

Official U.S. government statistics, however, tell a different story. In 2022, the Drug Enforcement Administration seized enough fentanyl to provide a potentially deadly dose to every American, most of it coming from Mexico. This Mexican-origin fentanyl is a leading contributor to the more than 70,000 annual U.S. deaths from synthetic opioids. Countering the transnational criminal organizations driving the fentanyl crisis will be difficult, however, given that U.S. Northern Command estimates they control roughly a third of Mexico's territory. While the administration points to increased border seizures as a success, the increasing seizure levels also indicate that undetected fentanyl flows are likely increasing at a rapid rate.

At the border, a record 2.3 million migrants attempted to cross illegally from Mexico into the United States in fiscal year 2022. Contrary to media reports, however, migrants are not just coming from Central America, Cuba, and Venezuela in large numbers. More than 800,000 were Mexican nationals, a 172 percent increase since fiscal year 2020 that provides evidence of a growing flow of Mexicans fleeing violence and lack of economic opportunities in their own country.

These security and migration challenges only add to the difficulties now facing U.S. economic priorities in Mexico. In recent years, AMLO has targeted U.S. companies and violated his country's commitments under the U.S.-Mexico-Canada Agreement (USMCA). The Biden administration, however, has not aggressively pursued remedies under USMCA. Since administration efforts to deter AMLO from passing a 2021 electricity law that threatened U.S. investment in Mexico's power sector proved unsuccessful, U.S. Trade Representative Katherine Tai has not exercised the U.S. prerogative to establish an arbitration panel to resolve the dispute after eight months of consultations. This failure to follow through sends a clear message to AMLO that the administration is unwilling to take him on, which only emboldens the Mexican president to take more aggressive action.

Mexican policies and the Biden administration's unwillingness to assert U.S. trade rights aggressively make investment less attractive at a time when USMCA and growing concerns about operating in China should make Mexico an ideal destination for new supply chains. On the Biden administration's watch, Mexico risks not only squandering its nearshoring opportunity, but also the continued viability of existing U.S. investments in the country.

Finally, the Biden administration's response to AMLO's efforts to reshape Mexico's political system has been basically nonexistent. At January's North American Leaders' Summit, President Biden, AMLO, and Canadian Prime Minister Justin Trudeau proclaimed that "full, equal, and meaningful participation in our democracies" was part of "the North American DNA." Just weeks later, AMLO pushed through legislation that severely undermined the country's National Electoral Institute only a year before the next presidential election. The White House's response? State Department Spokesperson Ned Price noted that the "great debate" over electoral reforms "illustrates Mexico's vibrant democracy" and expressed support for a "well-resourced, independent electoral system."

In each of these areas, the administration would likely argue that its approach has preserved space for continued cooperation with the current Mexican government while also raising issues in private. Last year, unnamed administration officials told the New York Times that migration gave AMLO "the power to damage [Biden's] political future," meaning U.S. policy had to avoid open conflict with him. The results, however, speak for themselves—bilateral problems go unaddressed or become more serious while the crisis at the border continues to deteriorate.

To have a chance at success, the administration needs a tougher and more holistic approach to the relationship—one that recognizes the gravity of these problems and past and present failures to address them in Mexico, but also understands Mexico's long-term importance to the United States. Respecting Mexico's sovereignty and historical sensitivity to foreign intervention is important, but without guardrails or redlines on actions that actively harm U.S. national security or the long-term stability of Mexico, it is not surprising that the situation continues to worsen.

Meetings and joint statements only matter if they lead to policy outcomes that change facts on the ground. So far, the Biden administration's Mexico policy has not delivered results.

Connor Pfeiffer is executive director of the Forum for American Leadership and former national security advisor to a member of the U.S. House Committee on Appropriations and Permanent Select Committee on Intelligence. His Twitter handle is @ConnorPfeiffer.

The views expressed in this article are the writer's own.