Biden Faces New Problem Over Israel's Rafah Offensive

Israel's planned ground offensive against Hamas in a densely populated city in southern Gaza is threatening to rupture a key alliance that has underpinned United States policy in the Middle East for decades, creating a new problem for President Joe Biden as he seeks to quell the conflict.

Regional tensions reached new heights in recent days after Egypt warned that it might suspend its peace treaty with Israel if it launches an offensive in Rafah, a city on the Egyptian border where more than 1 million displaced Palestinians have taken refuge since the start of the war after being instructed to move south by Israel.

A suspension in diplomatic relations between Egypt and Israel could deal a blow to Biden if it fuels the perception that under his watch the region is spiraling out of control. It's highly unusual for Egypt, a staunch U.S. ally that relies on American military aid, to publicly signal it might suspend its historic peace agreement with Israel, said James Zogby, the founder and president of the Arab American Institute.

"This is the first time I can ever recall it even being broached publicly. It means Egypt is under significant pressure," Zogby told Newsweek.

Fears of significant civilian casualties in Rafah grew after Israel carried out air strikes Monday in Rafah as part of a rescue mission that freed two hostages being held by Hamas. The militant group is still believed by Israel to be holding more than 100 hostages it abducted from Israel in its Oct. 7 attack. The air strikes killed 67 people, Gaza's Health Ministry said.

Middle East analysts and humanitarian aid groups said an Israeli offensive in Rafah could further destabilize the entire region.

"Diplomacy is the best way to get the hostages back and ensure that there isn't significant further humanitarian suffering," Jeremy Ben-Ami, the president of J Street, a liberal advocacy organization, told Newsweek.

American presidents since Jimmy Carter have used the U.S.-brokered peace treaty between Egypt and Israel in 1979 as a cornerstone to push for greater stability in the Middle East.

Egypt's decision to become the first Arab state to recognize Israel opened the door for a peace deal between Israel and Jordan in 1994, and ultimately for the normalization agreements known as the Abraham Accords between Israel and other countries in the region in 2020 under former President Donald Trump.

Egypt has emerged again as a critical U.S. ally in the months since the Oct. 7 attack on Israel by Hamas sparked the latest round of violence in the region. The militant group killed roughly 1,200 people in Israel and abducted roughly 240 others in the attack, leading Israel to respond with a large-scale military campaign it says aims to eliminate Hamas in Gaza.

The U.S. worked closely with Egypt and other partners in the region to help secure a pause in fighting between Israel and Hamas last November. Egypt has also aided international efforts to get food, medicine, fuel and other humanitarian aid into the Gaza Strip for civilians caught in the fighting between Israel and Hamas.

But Egypt has further toughened its security at the border with the Gaza Strip and has made clear that it will not allow refugees from Gaza to flee into its territory to escape the fighting.

Israeli forces have killed more than 28,000 people in Gaza since the start of the war, according to the Gazan health ministry. Biden has faced fierce from progressive members of his own Democratic Party for his continued support for Israel amid the growing humanitarian crisis in Gaza.

The pressure on Biden to end the fighting only increased last Friday after Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu announced that he had instructed Israel's military to draw up plans for an offensive in Rafah.

Netanyahu ordered a "combined plan" for evacuating civilians from Rafah and destroying four Hamas battalions in the area, according to a statement from the prime minister's office.

"It is impossible to achieve the goal of the war of eliminating Hamas by leaving four Hamas battalions in Rafah," the prime minister's office said.

Egyptian officials responded by warning that Egypt might suspend its peace treaty with Israel, according to a Wall Street Journal report Friday. Biden also warned Netanyahu in a call Sunday about proceeding with an offensive in Rafah.

"[The president] reaffirmed his view that a military operation in Rafah should not proceed without a credible and executable plan for ensuring the safety of and support for the more than one million people sheltering there," the White House said.

The escalating tension around Israel's offensive in Rafah comes as Biden plans to meet with King Abdullah II of Jordan at the White House on Monday to discuss the war in the Middle East.