Biden Looks to Score Elusive Diplomatic Victory in Russia's Backyard

As the United States seeks to assert a foothold in a region long under the sphere of Russian influence, President Joe Biden is pressing forward with an ambitious push to broker peace between ex-Soviet South Caucasus rivals Armenia and Azerbaijan.

And while significant obstacles stand in the way of a lasting resolution to the decades-long territorial dispute at the core of the ongoing conflict between these neighboring countries, success could mark a sorely needed diplomatic victory for the White House as Biden's foreign policy is facing the test of what is expected to be a fiercely contested re-election campaign.

In fact, the administration's ability to score such a win, even after Secretary of State Antony Blinken declared "significant progress" in talks held last week with his counterparts from the two countries, would come as a shock to at least one former U.S. official who worked directly with both sides in the midst of their most recent war in 2020.

"Frankly, I'm modestly surprised that the United States is trying to mediate anything," James Gilmore, a former governor of Virginia who later served as U.S. ambassador to the Organization for Security and Cooperation in Europe (OSCE), told Newsweek.

Gilmore argued that "compromise is unlikely" between Armenia and Azerbaijan in their dispute over Nagorno-Karabakh, a 1,700-square mile territory home to a largely ethnic Armenian self-proclaimed state of roughly 120,000 people on land internationally recognized as being located within Azerbaijan.

But Gilmore said such an outcome remains "desirable," and he expressed support for any U.S. role in mediating between the two foes. Speaking from experience, he noted that he sought to take a similar route to no avail in late 2020 as Washington underwent an arduous presidential transition. Gilmore urged U.S. diplomats working on the issue today not to underestimate the depth of the feud and to appreciate the opposing national goals of both sides.

"You have to keep your eye out on their respective interests," he said, "and then see whether or not you can find some way to at least create some modus vivendi of the two countries."

Such an effort comes at an opportune time for the U.S. as Russia focused much of its regional efforts on sustaining its war in Ukraine, launched in February 2022.

Gilmore said ongoing clashes between Armenia and Azerbaijan also constitute a "very hot conflict," one that "has the potential, of course, to spread to into other places, like Chechnya, and elsewhere in the South Caucasus, and my view is that the Russians have their hands full."

"So, if that opens the door to American mediation, that would be a good thing," he added. "That's what I thought we should have been doing to begin with, so if that door is open because of the Russian diversion, that's a good thing."

Benyamin Poghosyan, chair of the Center for Political and Economic Strategic Studies and senior research fellow at Applied Policy Research Institute (APRI) of Armenia, also sees Russia as being bogged down by its commitments in Ukraine two and a half years after Moscow brokered a ceasefire to end the 2020 conflict and deployed 2,000 peacekeepers to the region.

"The 2020 Nagorno-Karabakh war, as well as Russia's distraction toward Ukraine after February 2022, created a new situation in the region, as more external players, such as the U.S., the E.U., as well as Turkey and Iran, entered the game," Poghosyan told Newsweek. "While all actors are interested in preventing new large-scale war in the South Caucasus, they have divergent goals on the geopolitical future of the region."

For Russia, there is a desire "to keep its role as the primary player, viewing growing Western influence with suspicion," while the U.S. "is interested to push forward the Armenia-Azerbaijan peace process and Armenia-Turkey normalization efforts, hoping that it would open the way to push out Russian peacekeepers from Nagorno Karabakh after November 2025, and potentially, to remove the Russian military base and border troops from Armenia in longer perspective," according to Poghosyan.

In the three decades since it declared its independence from the Soviet Union in 1991, Azerbaijan has grown closer to Turkey and fellow U.S. ally Israel. Meanwhile, Armenia has remained a Russian ally under the Collective Security Treaty Organization (CSTO) and has also fostered ties with neighboring Iran, where certain separatist tendencies among a community of ethnic Azeris whose numbers rival Azerbaijan's entire population have raised concerns.

Still, the U.S. maintains good relations with both Armenia and Azerbaijan.

"The U.S. has always worked to strengthen the newly independent states of the post-Soviet space, including South Caucasus, viewing it as a way to promote stability and security, and secure their independence in the face of more assertive and resurgent Russia," Poghosyan said. "As U.S.-Russia relations hit the bottom due to the war in Ukraine, the U.S. involvement in the South Caucasus has increased this geopolitical pattern."

He broke down the U.S. strategic objectives in the region as being within a "'No Iran, less Russia, and more West' paradigm." But he said it was time for Washington to "push Azerbaijan to drop its maximalistic approach, and agree to some form of an international presence in Nagorno Karabakh" after "considerable concessions" had already been made by Armenia in the wake of their last conflict.

Armenia and its allies of the self-proclaimed Artsakh Republic in Nagorno-Karabakh suffered devastating losses at the hands of the 2020 Turkey-backed Azerbaijani campaign that included high-intensity drone warfare. Azerbaijani gains and a recent blockade of the Lachin corridor that connects Armenia to Nagorno-Karabakh have left those living in the disputed territory more isolated than ever.

"Now it's Azerbaijan's turn to prove that it is serious in its talks about peace with Armenia," Poghosyan said. "Otherwise, the U.S. efforts will lead to nowhere, and we will face either permanent low intensity conflict with periodical escalations or another frozen conflict, similar to the situation between 1994-2016."

"Both scenarios will exclude the possibility to decrease Russian influence in the region," he added.

Farid Shafiyev, a former senior Azerbaijani diplomat who now serves as chair of the Center of Analysis of International Relations (AIR), also saw Russia's war in Ukraine as hindering Moscow's role in the South Caucasus region.

"With Russia on one hand distracted by the war with Ukraine and another by its classical approach to freeze the problem rather than resolve it," Shafiyev told Newsweek, "it's obvious that Moscow is not interested in the long-term solution of the problems between Armenia and Azerbaijan."

He lauded the E.U.'s role in stepping into facilitate dialogue after the 2020 truce was declared, but blamed Armenia for lobbying to include France, a member of the OSCE's so-called "Minsk Group" alongside Russia and the U.S., in follow-on dialogue, arguing that it was too closely aligned with Armenia.

"After a pause, the U.S. got involved more actively in the process," Shafiyev said. "Therefore, both the U.S. and E.U. are better positioned to facilitate the signing of the peace treaty."

Following the talks between the Armenian and Azerbaijani foreign ministers in Arlington, Virgina, the two countries' leaders are set to meet Sunday in Brussels for further discussions hosted by the E.U.

While Shafiyev argued that "Westerners are interested in the long-term solution and stability in the South Caucasus," he also asserted that "Western experts suffer from bias and Orientalist perspectives" including a "mixture of religious and cultural predisposition towards Armenia," a largely Christian nation as opposed to majority-Muslim Azerbaijan. Such prejudices, he argued, also exist within the U.S. Congress, where some members have openly expressed support for Armenia and the humanitarian plight of those stranded in Nagorno-Karabakh.

He also stated that "Joe Biden's administration suffers from the lack of comprehensive vision towards the South Caucasus or the Caspian region," a shortcoming that he argued led to "quite grave consequences in the Middle East." Still, he expressed hope that "the current administration looks like it's learning on the way, especially in the context of its stand-off with Russia."

Shafiyev said that it was "uncertain" whether or not the current U.S. initiative to bring peace to Armenia and Azerbaijan would succeed, but "some optimism remains as more policymakers inside and outside of Armenia understand the necessity of recognizing Azerbaijan's territorial integrity as a basis for the future security and development."

The U.S., for its part, continues to place its faith in the possibility of a historic deal being reached between Armenia and Azerbaijan.

Speaking to reporters on Monday, State Department deputy spokesperson Vedant Patel echoed Blinken in calling last week's discussions "constructive" and saying that they resulted in "significant progress in addressing difficult issues."

"Both countries, as you know, agreed in principle to certain terms and have a better understanding of each other's points of views," Patel said. "And we believe that, with additional goodwill and flexibility and compromise, that an agreement is within reach, and we continue to provide full support and engagement from the United States as the two countries continue to engage in dialogue and continue to secure a durable and sustainable peace."

Despite their mutual distrust, officials from both Armenia and Azerbaijan have voiced their commitment to the current peace process and Washington's role in it.

"We believe the U.S. has an important role to play to reach stability and peace in the South Caucasus region," the Armenian Embassy in Washington, D.C. said in comments shared with Newsweek. "We highly value the diplomatic and political engagement of the Biden administration in this regard."

"While there are still core issues that need to be addressed to reach lasting peace in the region," the Embassy added, "Armenia remains committed to the peace agenda and appreciates the efforts and support of partners interested in peace in the South Caucasus, particularly the United States."

Khazar Ibrahim, Azerbaijan' ambassador to the U.S., also noted that the two sides still "have some core issues to sort out in order to move to complete resolution of the conflict between us." These include the continued presence of what he estimated to be up to 10,000 Armenian soldiers in the Nagorno-Karabakh region.

And yet, Ibrahim viewed the present U.S.-led track as different than previous attempts to usher in peace, arguing that the current proposal "creates opportunities for the region in general" in terms of trade, transportation and energy.

"I think if we didn't believe that we have a chance, probably neither Azerbaijan nor Armenia would engage in negotiations," Ibrahim told Newsweek. "So, I think there is a genuine belief from the sides that we can live side-by-side. Eventually, geography is destiny."

And while the Azerbaijani envoy was grateful for Washington's role, he also saw a potential place for Moscow in the process, as Armenian Prime Minister Nikol Pashinyan paid a visit to the Russian capital on Monday and Armenian Security Council Secretary Armen Grigoryan said the two countries' foreign ministers would soon meet there as well. Ibrahim "wouldn't exclude any engagements also involving Russia," nor would he "connect the Ukraine issue with current negotiations between Armenia and Azerbaijan."

Ultimately, however, he argued it would be up to the two countries themselvesto set aside their differences and take the necessary steps toward peace.

"It's my genuine belief that the U.S. has a genuine intention to help, but at the end of the day, it's not for the U.S. or anybody else to make decisions for us," Ibrahim said. "So, it will be for us and Armenians to decide for ourselves and for our future, for our probably, hopefully common future."