Biden Risks Another 'Fatal Mistake' in Red Sea

The U.S. and its allies are making a costly mistake in their response to Houthi attacks on commercial shipping in the Red Sea, the United Nations' former special envoy for Yemen has said, as the rebel group meets the Western bombing campaign with yet more strikes.

Jamal Benomar, who was the UN's representative in Yemen from 2011 to 2015 and was involved in talks to end the country's devastating civil war, told Newsweek that only a permanent ceasefire in the Gaza Strip can stem near-daily maritime attacks.

"Historically, looking back at what's happened since 2011 with the U.S. leading the charge against the Houthis, they have consistently miscalculated," Benomar said. President Joe Biden, he added, is now risking another tactical disaster.

"Opening this front against the Houthis in the Red Sea, I think, is another miscalculation. Their mindset is completely different and doesn't respond to this."

Newsweek has contacted the White House by email to request comment.

A Committed Campaign

The Iranian-aligned Houthis—officially known as Ansar Allah—launched their Red Sea campaign in protest of Israel's ongoing offensive in the Gaza Strip, an operation aimed at destroying Hamas in response to the militant group's October 7 surprise attack into southern Israel. The Hamas assault killed some 1,200 people and saw more than 250 taken hostage.

Six months on, Israel has killed more than 31,000 Palestinians in the Strip—per figures reported by The Associated Press citing the Gaza Health Ministry, displaced the majority of its 2.3 million residents, and razed swaths of the territory. Houthi leaders have said they will continue disrupting shipping in the Red Sea while Israeli "crimes in Gaza" continue.

The Yemeni group has so far been true to its word. Dozens of commercial and military ships have come under fire in the six months since October 7, with at least one vessel sunk, one captured, and one abandoned by its crew. The first fatalities among sailors were reported earlier this month when the True Confidence tanker was hit by a missile.

Initial U.S. and U.K. airstrikes on Houthi targets in January have been followed by more. "We will continue to make clear to the Houthis that they will bear the consequences if they do not stop their illegal attacks, which harm Middle Eastern economies, cause environmental damage, and disrupt the delivery of humanitarian aid to Yemen and other countries," Defense Secretary Lloyd Austin said in February.

But the Houthis are clearly committed to the campaign and have been increasing its tempo and scope. "Their area of operations is more widespread, the weapons they use are more sophisticated, and new weapons are being used, and they've increased the number of attacks," Benomar said.

"I think the U.S. and U.K. are at a loss of what to do. Because their stated objective—which is to degrade the Houthis so that they will not be able to threaten any ship in the Red Sea—that didn't work. They couldn't achieve that objective. The Houthis are much more belligerent, much more aggressive, much more determined to continue."

A Tenacious Foe

Houthi resolve has been forged through decades of fire. The minority Shiite Islamist movement fought six wars with the central Yemeni government led by then President Ali Abdullah Saleh before long-held tensions erupted into a civil conflict in 2011.

The Houthis emerged from the chaos largely victorious, at one point in alliance with Saleh, though he later changed sides and was killed trying to escape the group's control in 2017.

The Houthis have withstood a Saudi-led air campaign since 2015 that sought to drive them back. Seeking an exit from an unwinnable war, Riyadh has now been negotiating a political settlement for more than two years. The reigniting of fighting between Israel and Hamas, and the subsequent Houthi Red Sea campaign, have undermined the talks.

"In a nutshell, it started as a minority rights issue that got out of control," Benomar said of more than a decade of violence. The Western approach has been wrong from the start, the former envoy added, noting American and British failure to engage with the rebels throughout their journey from an isolated mountain movement to the victors of Yemen's bloodletting.

Western support for Saudi Arabia's military intervention in the civil war in 2015, Benomar added, was the most significant error. "The U.S. and U.K. encouraged them; that was a mistake," he explained.

"One thing that is very interesting to see in what's happening now in the Red Sea, is that both the United Arab Emirates the Saudis are keeping a low profile. I think they're keeping a low profile because they know that the Houthis have developed military capabilities and technological capabilities that they didn't have before, that can threaten their economies and their stability."

The standoff war with the West is proving a boon for Houthi credentials, Benomar said. "What's happening now is making the Houthis more popular in Yemen, although they don't have a good human rights record at all," he explained.

"It is making the Houthis look like Hezbollah in early 2000s, looking more popular in the whole Arab world," Benomar added, referring to the pro-Iranian Lebanese militia movement that became a key part of Tehran's "Axis of Resistance" through its opposition to Israel's occupation of the country from 1985-2000. Hezbollah has subsequently posed a potent threat across the shared border, where fighting has been constant since October 7.

"The Houthi calculation is that the confrontation with the U.S. will make them even more popular among the population," Benomar said. "And as a result, they will be able to recruit more fighters so they can finish the civil war with a total victory over their political opponents, who are supported by Saudi Arabia and the UAE."

"If they withstood eight years of aerial bombardment from the Saudis, they feel they can withstand the same level—or more—of bombardment from the U.S. and UK," he said. "They are going to continue. Now that they've grown in terms of sophistication and strengths, I don't know what the ultimate objective is."

The West appears keen on finding solutions. The Financial Times reported this week that U.S. officials conducted secret meetings with Iranian counterparts, in which they asked Tehran to rein in their Yemeni allies.

Benomar said the solution lays with Israel, and "ending the massacres in Gaza and ending the war in Gaza. What is needed is a permanent ceasefire. If that happens, the situation in the Red Sea will come to an end."