President Joe Biden's poll numbers in critical swing states spell trouble for his reelection chances, while he also remains to be the clear frontrunner for the Democratic Party's 2024 nomination.
National polls consistently show Biden getting negative reviews from the American people, while hypothetical 2024 matchups against his top Republican rivals generally show him behind or virtually tied. However, as presidential elections are decided by the Electoral College, most analysts would note that the final result will ultimately be decided in key swing states, such as Arizona, Georgia, Michigan, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin.
All of these five states were key battlegrounds in the 2016 and 2020 presidential elections. In 2016, all five went for former President Donald Trump, the Republican, and four years later in 2020 they flipped in favor of Biden.
Recent polls in these key swing states suggest the incumbent Democrat may be facing an uphill battle against his top GOP rivals—Trump, former United Nations ambassador and South Carolina Governor Nikki Haley, and Florida Governor Ron DeSantis.
The president's supporters have defended him by pointing to Democrats' success in the 2022 midterm elections as well as recent off-year elections, when voters across the country appeared particularly animated by concerns about Republican opposition to abortion rights. They also say that when ultimately given a choice between Biden and Trump, the frontrunner for the GOP nomination, voters will see the current president as the better option.
Newsweek reached out to Biden's campaign via email for comment.
Arizona
Biden very narrowly beat Trump in Arizona in 2020 by 0.4 percentage points, or less than 11,000 votes. That Democratic win came after Arizona had gone for GOP candidates in every presidential election (except for 1996) going back to 1952.
Biden vs. Trump
If Trump and Biden both secure their party's nomination, which polls currently show as the most likely outcome, the recent data suggests Arizona would flip back to Republicans.
A poll conducted by Morning Consult/Bloomberg from November 27 to December 6, showed Trump leading Biden by 4 points in a head-to-head matchup. The former GOP president had the support of 46 percent of respondents compared to the Democratic incumbent's 42 percent. The survey included 796 registered voters with a margin of error of plus or minus 3 percentage points.
Survey results from J.L. Partners/DailyMail.com show Trump up 5 points. In that poll, the former president has the backing of 48 percent of likely Arizona voters and Biden is backed by 43 percent. The survey, which included 550 likely voters, was carried out from November 27 to December 1 with a margin of error of plus or minus 4.2 percentage points.
Biden vs. Haley
Polling data for a match-up between Biden and Haley in Arizona is more mixed.
In a poll carried out by Redfield & Wilton Strategies/The Telegraph from November 27 to 29, Biden came out ahead of Haley, with independent candidate Robert F. Kennedy Jr. factored into the race. Biden received 33 percent, while Haley garnered 25 percent and Kennedy Jr. drew 19 percent. The survey included 1,103 likely Arizona voters.
A previous poll conducted from October 22 to November 3 by Siena College/The New York Times showed Haley in the lead, although the survey was a head-to-head matchup with Biden. The former South Carolina governor led the incumbent Democrat by 7 points among registered voters, 45 to 38 percent. The poll included 603 registered voters with a margin of error of plus or minus 4.4 percentage points.
Biden vs. DeSantis
Recent survey data shows similar results compared to a Haley matchup when Biden and DeSantis are the respective Democratic and Republican contenders.
The same Redfield & Wilton Strategies/The Telegraph poll found Biden ahead of DeSantis, with Kennedy Jr. in the running in Arizona as well. The results showed Biden with 34 percent compared to DeSantis' 27 percent and Kennedy Jr.'s 17 percent.
But in a head-to-head matchup, the Siena College/The New York Times survey showed DeSantis in the lead. The Florida governor had the support of 46 percent of registered Arizona voters and the incumbent Democrat was backed by 41 percent—a margin of 5 points in favor of DeSantis.
Georgia
Similar to Arizona, Georgia was long seen as a Republican stronghold, but narrowly flipped for Biden in 2020 by a margin of 0.2 percentage points, or less than 12,000 votes. The state had last gone for a Democrat in a presidential election in 1992.
Biden vs. Trump
Recent polling suggests Georgia could flip back to Republicans if 2024 sees another Trump and Biden matchup.
A head-to-head poll by SSRS/CNN showed the former president with 49 percent support and the current president with 44 percent—a lead of 5 points for Trump. The survey was carried out from November 30 to December 7 and included 1,068 registered voters with a margin of error of plus or minus 3.3 percentage points.
The recent Morning Consult/Bloomberg poll had similar results, with Trump at 49 percent and Biden at 43 percent—showing the Republican leading by 6 points.
Biden vs. Haley
The former U.N. ambassador appears to be outperforming Biden by similar margins to Trump in Georgia.
In the recent SSRS/CNN poll, Haley also received 49 percent and Biden garnered 43 percent support. That places the Republican hopeful slightly ahead of Trump, with a lead of 6 points over Biden compared to the former president's 5 point lead.
A previous survey by The University of Georgia/Atlanta Journal-Constitution showed Haley narrowly ahead of Biden. In that poll, she received support from 43.4 percent of likely voters compared to Biden's 40.9 percent. It included 1,002 respondents with a margin of error of plus or minus 3.1 percentage points.
Biden vs. DeSantis
Biden fairs comparatively well against DeSantis in Georgia, narrowly leading the Republican governor in recent polls.
The SSRS/CNN poll has Biden up by 3 points, with the president at 48 percent and the Florida governor at 45 percent. Similarly, The University of Georgia/Atlanta Journal-Constitution poll has Biden leading by 1.6 points, with 43.4 percent and DeSantis at 41.8 percent.
Michigan
Although Michigan has largely backed Democratic presidential candidates since 1992, the state flipped narrowly for Trump in 2016. Biden then won the state by a margin of 2.8 points, more than 150,000 votes, in 2020.
Biden vs. Trump
Despite Biden's win in 2020, he appears to be underwater with the midwestern state's voters in a hypothetical rematch with Trump. The recent SSRS/CNN poll has Trump leading by a whopping 10 points. The former president received 50 percent support compared to Biden's 40 percent.
The recent Morning Consult/Bloomberg poll showed Trump ahead by 4 points. The Republican was backed by 46 percent of respondents while 42 percent supported Biden.
Biden vs. Haley
The SSRS/CNN poll showed Haley with an even more sizable double-digit margin against Biden. The former governor was supported by 50 percent of registered Michigan voters compared to the incumbent president's 38 percent—a lead of 12 points for the Republican hopeful.
An EPIC-MRA poll conducted from November 10 to 16 showed similar results for Haley. In that survey, she led by 11 points, with 47 percent support compared to Biden's 36 percent. The poll included 600 likely voters and had a margin of error of plus or minus 4 points.
Biden vs. DeSantis
The Florida governor does not appear to be doing as well against Biden in Michigan as Trump and Haley, but he still leads by a notable margin in the SSRS/CNN poll. DeSantis garnered the backing of 49 percent of respondents compared to Biden's 42 percent—a 7 point margin in favor of the GOP contender.
However, the recent Siena College/The New York Times survey shows Biden and DeSantis in a dead heat, with the Democratic incumbent leading by 1 point—44 to 43 percent.
Pennsylvania
Like Michigan, Pennsylvania—where Biden was born—has generally backed Democratic presidential candidates since 1992, but went for Trump in 2016. Then in 2020, the state flipped back for Democrats, with Biden leading Trump there by 1.2 percent, or more than 80,000 votes.
Biden vs. Trump
The recent Morning Consult/Bloomberg survey shows Trump narrowly ahead of Biden by 2 points in a head-to-head matchup. Meanwhile, the Redfield & Wilton Strategies/The Telegraph poll shows Trump beating Biden by 7 points, 44 to 37 percent, even when Kennedy Jr. is factored in. The independent candidate garnered 7 percent support.
Biden vs. Haley
Polling with Biden and Haley is mixed. The Redfield & Wilton Strategies/The Telegraph poll including Kennedy Jr. has Biden ahead by 10 points. The incumbent president garners 36 percent support compared to Haley's 26 percent and Kennedy's 18 percent.
The Siena College/The New York Times survey shows Haley leading Biden by 10 points in a head-to-head matchup. The former governor has the backing of 49 percent of respondents and Biden has the support of 39 percent.
Biden vs. DeSantis
The recent data is also mixed when it comes to Biden against DeSantis, however the margins are closer.
The Telegraph survey has Biden ahead by 3 points. The president is supported by 37 percent, DeSantis is backed by 34 percent and Kennedy Jr. garners 13 percent. But the Siena College/The New York Times' results show DeSantis up 2 points, at 45 percent among registered voters compared to 43 percent for Biden.
Wisconsin
Wisconsin also had been seen as relatively safe for Democrats in presidential elections, having gone blue in most elections since 1988, with the exception of 2016 when it flipped in favor of Trump. Then, like Michigan and Pennsylvania, it swung back to Democrats in 2020, backing Biden by a narrow margin of 0.7 percentage points, or just over 20,000 votes.
Biden vs. Trump
The recent polling in Wisconsin has been mixed. The Morning Consult/Bloomberg survey showed Trump leading Biden by 4 points, 45 to 41 percent, in a head-to-head matchup. However, the J.L. Partners/DailyMail.com poll had exactly the opposite result, with Biden at 45 percent and Trump at 41 percent.
Biden vs. Haley
If Haley were to be the GOP nominee, Biden would be in trouble if current polling trends hold in Wisconsin. The Siena College/New York Times survey shows the former South Carolina governor leading the incumbent president by 13 points among registered voters in the state. Haley is backed by 52 percent compared to Biden's 39 percent.
A previous poll by Marquette University Law School conducted from October 26 to November 2 showed Haley up by 9 points. The GOP hopeful had the backing of 53 percent of registered voters and Biden was supported by 44 percent. The survey included 908 registered Wisconsin voters with a margin of error of plus or minus 4.5 points.
Biden vs. DeSantis
DeSantis also performs well against Biden in Wisconsin, although not as well as Haley. The Florida governor leads Biden by 4 points in the Siena College/New York Times poll, 48 to 44 percent. DeSantis is ahead of the incumbent president by 2 points in the Marquette University Law School survey, 50 to 48 percent.
A Lot Could Change
Political analysts and pundits are quick to point out that it's far too early to say with any certainty how the 2024 election will play out. While Biden and Trump appear to be heading for a likely rematch, much could happen between now and the start of the primary season. It's still not certain who the Republican and Democratic nominees will be.
Biden currently faces three long shot primary challengers; Marianne Williamson, Cenk Uygur and Representative Dean Phillips of Minnesota. Furthermore, how Trump's various legal challenges, in which he has maintained his innocence, play out remains to be seen. And the possibility that Haley or DeSantis secure the GOP nomination instead of Trump remains on the table as well.
Currently, the polling does appear to show Biden struggling against his top Republican rivals in the pivotal swing states. The president, for his part, remains confident he will defeat Trump if they both secure their party's nominations.
"I'm not the only one who can defeat him, but I will defeat him," Biden recently told reporters.
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Jason Lemon is a Weekend Editor at Newsweek based in Brooklyn, New York. Prior to taking on the editor role, Jason's reporting focused on ... Read more
