Brandon Presley's Chances of Beating Tate Reeves, According to Bookmakers

Brandon Presley is an odds-on favorite to win the upcoming Mississippi gubernatorial election according to a leading bookmaker, putting him on track to beat incumbent Republican Tate Reeves and become the first Democratic governor of the state in 20 years.

U.K.-based bookies Betfair Exchange is currently offering odds of 4/7 on a Presley victory, versus just 11/8 for Governor Reeves. This means if you bet $7 on Presley winning, and he does, you will make $4 profit, whereas if you stake $8 on Reeves, and he is successful, you will gain $11.

The odds reflect a sharp turn against the incumbent Republican, who had leads of 11 and eight points in two surveys conducted in August in September respectively. However, the most recent poll, released in October by the Democratic Governors Association (DGA), had Reeves only slightly ahead on 46 percent versus 45 percent for Presley.

Speaking to Newsweek, Sam Rosbottom, a Betfair Exchange spokesperson, said: "Brandon Presley is the 4/7 odds-on favorite to win the Mississippi governor election, while Tate Reeves is 11/8 to win a second term as the pair hurled insults at each other during a tense debate on Wednesday night."

Presley, the second cousin of music legend Elvis Presley, has outraised Reeves by more than $5 million in the 2023 election cycle, in part because he received more than $3.75 million from the DGA.

Reeves and Presley clashed in a heated debate on Wednesday, in which both candidates accused the other of lying.

Brandon Presley vs Tate Reeves
A recent poll put Governor Tate Reeves (right) ahead of challenger Brandon Presley (left) by just one point, raising the prospects of a major upset. Getty/Newsweek

Referencing his Democratic challenger, Reeves said: "When he qualified to run for governor, he couldn't make it an entire hour without lying to the people of Mississippi. And on this debate stage, he couldn't make it one full minute without lying to the people of Mississippi."

Presley shot back: "I told somebody recently that asked me about negative ads, 'If he'd quit lying on me, I'd quit telling the truth on him.'"

On October 22, Presley shared a photograph of himself and his wife, Katelyn Mabus, posing with acting legend Morgan Freeman at a property he owned in Clarksdale, Mississippi.

This sparked an angry reaction from Reeves, who tweeted: "Some folks fight for endorsements from Hollywood liberals, I prefer endorsements from truck drivers."

Reeves also claimed his opponent is being funded by "far-left radicals," whilst Presley claimed the Republican incumbent is "ensnarled in the largest public corruption scandal in Mississippi history."

Mississippi Governor Tate Reeves
Mississippi Republican Gov. Tate Reeves at the Governor's Mansion June 30, 2020, in Jackson, Mississippi. Reeves is odds on to lose his re-election battle to Democrat Brandon Presley according to a leading bookmaker. Rogelio V. Solis-Pool/GETTY

On Tuesday, Reeves received an endorsement from Donald Trump with the former president describing him as "my friend," and claiming he'd done a "fantastic job" as governor.

In a video shared by the Mississippi Republican Party, he added: "You got to vote for Governor Tate Reeves. He fights for the people of Mississippi and he has my total and complete endorsement."

A survey published by the Northeast Mississippi Daily Journal in August found Presley's name recognition in the state had surged to 59 percent, versus just 25 percent when he launched his campaign in January.

Newsweek has contacted the campaigns of Governor Tate Reeves and Brandon Presley for comment.

Correction 11/03/2023, 2:14 p.m. ET: This article was updated to correct a quote attributed to Presley.

Uncommon Knowledge

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Newsweek is committed to challenging conventional wisdom and finding connections in the search for common ground.

About the writer


James Bickerton is a Newsweek U.S. News reporter based in London, U.K. His focus is covering U.S. politics and world ... Read more

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