British Muslims could hold the balance of power in a quarter of the seats in next week's British general election, a new study has revealed.
New research conducted by the anti-extremism thinktank The Henry Jackson Society (HJS), entitled Religious Diversity in British Parliamentary Constituencies, has shown that, in the 2010 election, the number of Muslims was larger than the margin of victory in 159 seats out of the 632 total seats in the vote.
"This study provides a fascinating look at Britain's changing religious demographic dynamics and how they are concentrated in relation to political power," Dr Alan Mendoza, executive director of The Henry Jackson Society and author of the report, said.
The thinktank claims that the study is the first of its kind, breaking down constituencies by religion and, while avoiding saying that religious communities block vote, suggests that a presence of a religious minority in an area will influence the outcome of the seat.
It also shows that Hindus constitute a greater number than the margin of victory in 51 seats (8.1%), 40 of which are marginal seats; Sikhs constitute more than the margin of victory in 34 seats, 25 of which are marginal seats; Buddhists represent more than the margin of victory in 15 seats (2.1%), which are all marginal; and Jews number more than the margin of victory in 13 constituencies (2.1%), 11 of which are marginal seats.
"Though members of minority religions in a particular constituency will not necessarily vote in a uniform manner, there are some scenarios in which the presence of a religious minority has significant potential influence on the outcome, particularly within marginal seats," wrote Mendoza.
"Among the 93 marginal seats where one or more minority religions outweighs the margin of victory, Islam outweighs the majority vote in 90 (96.9%); Hindus in 40 (43.0%); Sikhs in 25 (26.9%); Buddhists in 15 (16.1%); and Jews in 11 (11.8%)," he added.
The report, which matches political data from the 2010 election against census data on Britain's religious make-up, shows that foreign-born voters will constitute more than 50% of the voters in two London constituencies, Brent North and East Ham, while a third will make-up the electorate in 25 seats and a quarter will make up the voters in a further 50 seats. It adds that London and the West Midlands are the most religiously diverse regions in Great Britain while the North East is shown to be the least diverse.
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