California's Drought Outlook Has Shifted Dramatically - Here's Why

As snowpack continues to melt in California, this year's drought outlook for the state has changed dramatically.

Heavy rainfall and snow hit the state in the winter months, and a huge amount of snowpack accumulated in the Sierra Nevada. As the weather warms, that's all melting.

California has been in a drought for years, but amid the melting snow, the drought outlook has changed significantly. According to the U.S. Drought Monitor, the drought in the state has pretty much lifted, with only 4.63 percent of the state in a moderate drought, and 29.12 percent being abnormally dry.

Just three months ago, some 24.96 percent of the state was in a severe drought and 49.13 percent in a moderate drought.

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Before After

At the beginning of the calendar year, 97.94 percent of the state was in a moderate drought.

As the snow continued to melt and the drought alleviated, areas including Yosemite National Park have flooded. This is expected to continue throughout June and perhaps into July.

The current situation, however, is only likely to be a short-term solution to the state's drought problems.

"This will definitely help drought conditions in the short run. In the long run we still face risks associated with higher temperatures due to climate change," Tom Corringham, a research economist at the Scripps Institution of Oceanography in San Diego, told Newsweek. "Some areas will get wetter and some will get drier. In all areas we expect more precipitation to fall as rain than as snow, which makes capturing and storing the water more challenging. Similarly, we expect precipitation to be more concentrated in the winter months, with less rain in spring and fall, and more rain falling in intense atmospheric river storms. This makes water management more challenging."

Due to climate change, California is experiencing "whiplash" seasons. This is causing weather patterns to become more extreme. This can manifest in very dry periods, following by extremely wet periods.

These unreliable weather patterns are making drought conditions in the future difficult to predict.

"In an ideal world we'd have consistent year-to-year precipitation and consistently ample snowpack in the Sierra and the Rockies, but climate change is making the system more volatile and increasingly difficult to manage," Corringham said.

Golden Gate bridge in rain
The Golden Gate Bridge in pouring rain in January 2023. The recent weather has alleviated the drought. JOSH EDELSON / Contributor/Getty

"We have been very lucky that the weather has been relatively cool so snowmelt has been moderate, compared to what would have happened with a heat wave. Every day that passes without a major jump in streamflows is a large amount of snow removed and unavailable to create flooding."

Do you have a tip on a science story that Newsweek should be covering? Do you have a question about California's drought? Let us know via science@newsweek.com.

Uncommon Knowledge

Newsweek is committed to challenging conventional wisdom and finding connections in the search for common ground.

Newsweek is committed to challenging conventional wisdom and finding connections in the search for common ground.

About the writer


Robyn White is a Newsweek Nature Reporter based in London, UK. Her focus is reporting on wildlife, science and the ... Read more

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