A Ceasefire with Russia Will Condemn Millions of Ukrainians | Opinion

As the Russian invasion of Ukraine approaches its two-year anniversary, the Russian Federation has shown no signs of ending its brutal and horrific war. Thousands of Ukrainians have been killed, and numerous cities and towns have been destroyed. Meanwhile, Russia has had hundreds of thousands of casualties, and it has lost tens of billions of dollars in defense equipment. Despite this devastation, Russia is content to continue the war.

Given the significant loss of life and the cost of the war, some members of the international community have called for forced negotiations between Ukraine and Russia. They believe that a ceasefire would freeze the conflict, and that it would save additional lives. They also assume that the agreement would not be violated.

But these views are naïve. The call for a ceasefire assumes that Russia is a rational actor, and that it would normalize its behavior and relationship with Ukraine if a ceasefire was implemented. This is far from the truth. To date, Russia has shown no signs that it will change its stance and behavior on the war, and there is nothing to suggest that this will change.

Take, for example, the Russian invasion in 2014. During this period, the Organization for Security and Cooperation in Europe (OSCE) regularly met with Ukrainian and Russian representatives to try and enforce a series of ceasefires in the Donbas. Agreements were signed between Ukraine and Russia to stop the fighting, but Russia constantly violated the terms. The Russian Federation refused to withdraw its troops and military equipment in the occupied regions in the Donbas. Russian soldiers would also fire on Ukrainian soldiers without warning. Finally, despite international pressure to enforce the terms of agreement, Russia disregarded these statements. Instead, Russia maintained its presence in the Donbas for eight years. Then, in February 2022, the Russian Federation illegally declared that the regions it occupied in the Donbas would become autonomous, and three days later, the second invasion began.

Given those events, there is little to suggest that Russia should be trusted in a ceasefire. Previous events have shown that Russia has a history of violating these types of agreements. Instead, a ceasefire would benefit Russia as it would allow Russian forces to regroup and re-strategize their troops, and then they could launch another orchestrated attack. This would only lead to further death and destruction in Ukraine.

There is another risk that is associated with implementing a ceasefire. A forced agreement with Ukraine and Russia would condemn millions of Ukrainians to Russia's brutal occupation. According to a United Nations report, Russia has committed thousands of war crimes throughout the war. In the current and formerly Russian-occupied regions of Ukraine, Russian forces have raped several men, women, and children. The Russians have tortured and mutilated civilians. They have abducted children, separated families, and forcibly deported Ukrainians to various parts of Russia. The Russians have murdered thousands of unarmed civilians. These atrocities were revealed when Ukrainian forces and independent investigators arrived in previously occupied places such as Bucha and Izyum, and these horrors would only resume if Russia continued to occupy territory in Ukraine's south and east.

Ukraine has stated on several occasions that it will do what it can to defend itself from Russia's ongoing invasion. The Ukrainians have said they will not agree to a forced negotiation with Russia. They also said that they will only have negotiations once Russian forces have entirely left Ukraine. Until then, Ukraine will continue to defend itself and liberate territory that is illegally occupied by Russia. Based on this narrative, Western leaders and scholars should stop imposing a forced idea that Ukraine should negotiate with Russia. There cannot be any forms of negotiations without Ukraine, and negotiations should only occur under Ukraine's terms.

While calls for a ceasefire may be well intended, they are ill-advised. Such an agreement would only reward Russia. It would freeze the current developments of the war in Ukraine, thus giving the Russians control over illegally-seized territory in southern and eastern Ukraine. It would also signal to other authoritarian rulers that they can be rewarded for invading their neighbors. A ceasefire would also condemn millions of Ukrainians to Russia's brutal rule, and a forced negotiation would disregard and suppress the voice of the Ukrainian people. This would lead to further devastation in the future.

There can only be one way to end the war. It is with Russia's defeat, and with negotiations being completed on Ukraine's terms. There cannot be any other alternative.

Mark Temnycky is an accredited freelance journalist covering Eurasian affairs and a nonresident fellow at the Atlantic Council's Eurasia Center. He can be found on X @MTemnycky.

The views expressed in this article are the writer's own.