Chernobyl Aftermath: How Long Will Exclusion Zone Be Uninhabitable?

The Chernobyl Exclusion Zone in Ukraine remains one of the most radioactive areas of the world, following Earth's worst nuclear disaster in 1986.

A meltdown of a reactor within the Chernobyl nuclear plant on April 26 of that year caused two devastating explosions, which saw radioactive debris and fuel seep out into the surrounding environment.

As a result, the Soviet Union cornered off and isolated the disaster area—a piece of land measuring 1,040 square miles, and declared it to be 'the exclusion zone,' now considered the most severely affected area following the disaster. The zone remains remains in place to this day.

It was decreed that nobody could enter the exclusion zone, apart from a few government officials, researchers and scientists. In the weeks following the disaster, most of those living in the area were evacuated. Before the disaster, Chernobyl was home to around 14,000 people.

But, how long will the area remain uninhabitable? Newsweek has an analysis of the situation.

'For Centuries, If Not Millennia'

It is hard to know for sure when radioactive contamination will clear. While it naturally fades over time, this can sometimes take thousands of years.

Scientists have previously said, due to the huge amount of contamination in the Chernobyl area, the exclusion zone will not be habitable for many, many years.

Experts have said it will be at least 3,000 years for the area to become safe, while others believe this is too optimistic. It is thought that the reactor site will not become habitable again for at least 20,000 years, according to a 2016 report.

Tim Mousseau, Professor of Biological Sciences at the University of South Carolina, told Newsweek that the exclusion zone remains "a highly heterogeneous region with respect to radioactive contaminants."

"Some areas largely escaped radioactive fallout and are not dangerous to visit or work in, while other areas remain heavily contaminated with a potpourri of radionuclides like cesium-137, strontium-90 and plutonium-241 and will remain uninhabitable for centuries if not millennia," Mousseau said.

Mousseau said the radiation distribution is patchy, meaning it is possible for people to experience both high and low radiation areas over a short distance.

"[This makes] most of the Zone largely uninhabitable for people. This is reflected in the plants and animals living in the region where, in many areas, there are minimal effects of radiation while in the more contaminated areas, like the so-called Red Forest, organisms show many negative effects, such as increased mutation rates, lower fertility and increased rates of tumors and other developmental abnormalities," Mousseau said.

"That said, much of the zone could be suitable for industrial activities like the installation of solar farms and forestry as long as precautions are taken to avoid human exposure to the radioactive contaminants in the soil."

Returning Home

Despite the evacuation order, some people illegally moved back to their homes following the disaster.

Professor Geraldine Thomas, Professor of Molecular Pathology, Imperial College London and founder of the Chernobyl Tissue Bank, told Newsweek that technically the exclusion zone is not uninhabitable because there are people living there, most without health issues.

"[They live there] legally, it's not recommended that they live there, but there are people who've lived there ever since the accident," Thomas said.

Thomas said the amount of radiation in areas of the exclusion zone is "very small," in terms of the amount that would reach a body's tissues.

"The six million people who were in the areas closest to Chernobyl, including the Pripyat people who were also evacuated as well, the average dose for those over 25 years from [long-lived isotope] caesium was 10 milli sieverts, which is the same as one CT scan," Thomas said.

As the body is always "turning things over," Thomas said longer lived isotopes like this "don't dwell in the body very long, and they don't release their radioactivity."

"You have to remember it's a rural population. It's people who own their land for generations. So a lot of the older people moved back there because that's where their life was, and they did not want to move elsewhere," Thomas said.

"They've tried to make sure the children get there but they've made various rules about children not being allowed in at all because everybody knows that the kids are more susceptible to radiation," he added.

Thomas said the exclusion zone remains in place for the safety and security of the reactor site.

Since the evacuation of the area, the exclusion zone—outside of highly contaminated areas—has become something of a haven for wildlife.

"I always say to people, use your eyes. If you go there, you'll find that the wildlife population is exploding. And it's exploding as man's not there," Thomas said.

"It's living perfectly well in that area, with the radiation exposure, and it's eating stuff off the ground. We wouldn't be feeding off the ground, which is where you're going to get the most contamination. And wildlife is absolutely thriving there. So how can that square with the fact that this radiation supposed to be terribly dangerous?"