The pair of Chinese balloons that drifted through the Taiwan Strait earlier this week, leading to concerns over whether they were being used for spying, were likely weather balloons.
However, that doesn't rule out the balloons, which bring the month's total to five, carried intelligence-collecting equipment, Jeremy Hung, a researcher at the Taiwanese think tank the Institute for National Defense and Security Research, pointed out.
Beijing's use of high-altitude balloons and airships, especially for intelligence-gathering purposes, came under the spotlight earlier this year after one balloon, said to be carrying sophisticated equipment, drifted across the continental U.S. before being shot down on the orders of U.S. President Joe Biden. The incident deepened the rift between the superpowers and resulted in Secretary of State Antony Blinken postponing his visit to Beijing.
Taiwan's Ministry of Defense on Monday included the balloons on its daily map of Chinese activity in the strait. The image showed the eastward flight paths of the two balloons launched Sunday that crossed the central line of the Taiwan Strait. Both were traveling at an altitude of around 27,000 feet, the report said.
The ministry said its initial assessment suggested the balloons were being used for meteorological observation or high-altitude scientific research.
The balloon's relatively low sub-30,000 foot altitude indicates it is unlikely to be a spy balloon, Hung told Newsweek. He pointed out that spy balloons have largely been replaced by satellites and unmanned aerial vehicles.
"Of course, this does not mean that these balloons are unrelated to collecting information about Taiwan. For example, is it possible that through balloons, information related to communication and radar data can actually be collected?" he said.
China's Foreign Ministry didn't respond to Newsweek's request for comment by publication time.
While infrequent compared to the military planes and warships China deploys in the Taiwan Strait on a near daily basis, Chinese balloons have been monitored there in the past, including four in January and February of this year, he pointed out.
U.S.-defense analyst Ben Lewis told Taipei-based media outlet TaiwanPlus Sunday that overall, activity in the Taiwan Strait seems to have slowed in the lead-up to Taiwan's national elections next month.
"Relative to this time last year, we've had a pretty low level of activity so far this month," Lewis said.
The Chinese government which has vowed to unify eventually with Taiwan—through force if necessary—seems to have toned down its activities in the Taiwan Strait to avoid accusations of voter intimidation, he added.
Beijing is believed to be taking a wait-and-see approach as Taiwanese voters prepare to decide whether the ruling China-skeptic Democratic Progressive Party or its more Beijing-friendly rivals takes the presidency and legislature.
A U.S. Department of Defense spokesperson referred Newsweek to this year's department report on security developments involving China.
High-altitude balloons developed by China-based research institutions include "payloads to support imaging, data relay, and communications capabilities. While some of this research may support civilian applications such as weather monitoring, many of these high-altitude systems are very likely intended to support [People's Liberation Army] requirements," the report said.
Chinese military publications have shown interest in "near-space" platforms as an added layer of the military's reconnaissance capabilities, the report said.
Uncommon Knowledge
Newsweek is committed to challenging conventional wisdom and finding connections in the search for common ground.
Newsweek is committed to challenging conventional wisdom and finding connections in the search for common ground.
About the writer
Micah McCartney is a reporter for Newsweek based in Taipei, Taiwan. He covers U.S.-China relations, East Asian and Southeast Asian ... Read more
