China's Special Envoy Zhai Jun wrapped up his tour of the Middle East this week, but some analysts say Beijing lacks the clout to help bring about a detente in the war between Israel and Hamas, even if it wants to.
The U.S. has urged Israel to allow a humanitarian pause in its bombardment of Gaza City. The death toll in the Palestinian enclave has passed 9,000, according the Hamas-run health ministry there. Women and children comprise 70 percent of those killed, according to the UN Relief and Works Agency for Palestine Refugees. Some 1,400 Israelis were killed in the October 7 attacks that sparked the Israeli government's counteroffensive.
Zhai engaged in a series of meetings with international leaders and organizations, took part in the Cairo Peace Summit, and supported Arab countries' calls for a cessation to hostilities, Chinese Ministry of Foreign Affairs spokesperson Wang Wenbin said at Wednesday's press conference.
However, this outreach is not enough to affect lasting change, China watchers have said.
"The Chinese Communist Party almost certainly won't make "any meaningful contribution toward Middle East peace, nor is it likely to take serious steps to facilitate an agreement to suspend hostilities in Gaza," wrote Andrew Scobell, distinguished fellow with the China program at the U.S. Institute for Peace, in an analysis published Wednesday. This is because China lacks sufficient influence, both diplomatic and military, in the region, and the Chinese leadership is overly afraid of taking risks and making enemies, he added.
Although U.S. Secretary of State Antony Blinken, Defense Secretary Lloyd Austin, and President Joe Biden embarked on trips to the Middle East soon after the conflict erupted, Chinese President and Foreign Minister Wang Yi have weighed in from afar, content to dispatch Zhai to the area, Scobell pointed out.
Beijing does, however, seem to be making a good impression on its three target audiences: the Chinese people, the developing countries of the Global South, and the Arab world.
During his trip, Zhaimade stops in Jordan, Egypt, Saudi Arabia, Qatar, and the United Arab Emirates. He did not pay a visit to Israel.
"He was all over the place except for here," Tuvia Gering, a China researcher at Israel's Institute for National Security Studies, told Newsweek. The alleged purpose of the trip, conflict mediation, was not the priority. The priority was testing the temperature of surrounding Muslim-majority countries and then taking that position, he said.
Zhai reiterated Beijing's condemnation of harm to civilians and call for a ceasefire and two-state solution to the Palestinian issue. He also continued his country's policy of refraining from condemning Hamas for their attacks on Israeli communities.
The "fundamental reason" for the conflict is that the Palestinians have been deprived of their rights, Zhai said after a meeting with his Russian counterpart Mikhail Bogdanov in Qatar.
China seeks to position itself as a responsible power and draw a contrast with the U.S. "Major countries" need to take a fair position and play a "constructive role in cooling down the crisis," Wang said Wednesday.
When it comes to China's position on the conflict, it's not about the Israelis or the Palestinians; the point is how it reflects on the U.S. and undermines the China rival, "especially in the Middle East where it holds security primacy," he said.
"As an analyst, I understand what [Beijing] is doing," Gering added, "but not as a human."
"China has been playing its cards quite deftly: building goodwill with Arab countries and encouraging notions of solidarity across the Global South, while not getting entangled in any substantive way that could open it to more serious backlash in the West (especially in Europe), Yale law professor Taisu Zhang wrote on X (formerly Twitter).
As the humanitarian situation continues to worsen in Gaza, both the first and second-largest economies announced drastically different quantities of humanitarian assistance.
China also pledged an additional $2 million in "emergency humanitarian funding for Gaza, to be distributed via the Palestinian National Authority, which controls the other Palestinian territory: the West Bank. Beijing had previously announced $1 million worth of aid, including food and medical supplies.
That same week, Biden announced $100 million in humanitarian aid, both for residents of Gaza and the West Bank. "We will continue to work closely with partners in the region to stress the importance of upholding the law of war, supporting those who are trying to get to safety or provide assistance, and facilitating access to food, water, medical care, and shelter," he said.
Update 11/03/23 12:50 p.m.: This article was updated with comment from Gering.
Correction 11/6/23 11:30 p.m. ET: A previous version of this article referred to Zhai Jun as "Jun." Zhai is his family name.
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Micah McCartney is a reporter for Newsweek based in Taipei, Taiwan. He covers U.S.-China relations, East Asian and Southeast Asian ... Read more
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