Clashes in Myanmar close to China's border could endanger Beijing's multi-billion-dollar infrastructure project, the Belt and Road Initiative, in the region, as well as the main trade route between the countries, experts have told Newsweek.
China sent its Assistant Foreign Minister, Nong Rong, to Myanmar to call for calm, following clashes between armed groups and the military government led by Senior General Min Aung Hlaing, which seized power in a coup in February 2021 and has faced resistance ever since from pro-democracy groups.
In a blow to the junta, ethnic minority rebel groups led by the Brotherhood Alliance seized the border town of Chinshwehaw in the north of the eastern state of Shan, bordering China's Yunnan state, which is a route for $1.8 billion-worth of trade between the countries.
According to reports, since October 27, the rebel groups have overrun more than 90 army outposts and the military has reportedly acknowledged the loss of at least three towns.
Min Aung Hlaing has vowed to counter rebel advances and his military has responded with airstrikes, as clashes in the restive region have caused the displacement of around 48,000 people, according to the United Nations.
Newsweek has contacted the Foreign Ministries of China and Myanmar for comment.
"The fighting between rebel groups and the military regime creates some serious challenges for China," said Zhiqun Zhu, a professor of political science and international relations at Pennsylvania's Bucknell University, told Newsweek.
This is because while China typically does not wish to be involved in other countries' internal affairs or civil wars, the fighting "where the planned China-Myanmar Economic Corridor will pass through undoubtedly affects the implementation of the Belt and Road Initiative in Myanmar and Southeast Asia,"
The Belt and Road Initiative is a decade-long, trillion-dollar international infrastructure program that Beijing has touted as a modern-day form of the Silk and Maritime Silk Road trade networks that connected ancient China with distant regions.
"An unstable environment along Yunnan province's border will also harm China's border area development," Zhu said, as the prospect looms of a humanitarian crisis if refugees enter Chinese border towns to escape the conflict.
"There is no indication that China will get directly involved in the civil conflict and do anything other than pressuring the Myanmar government to restore border stability soon," he said.
Beijing has ties with armed groups in Myanmar along its border, and while it has denied supplying them with weapons, its relationship with the Myanmar military has become increasingly tense since the coup. After his visit to Myanmar, Nong called on the country to "cooperate with China" to stabilize the border.
"Beijing's message appears clear—either the military junta takes concrete measures to ensure border stability, or China will," said Craig Singleton, a senior China fellow at the non-partisan Foundation for Defense of Democracies.
He told Newsweek the dual challenges for Beijing are the rebel groups seeking self-determination, which is "a risk in and of itself to China's one-party rule." There is also "the possibility that growing instability could jeopardize proposed Belt and Road Initiative investments in the region."
"Taken together, these risks are simply too serious for Beijing to ignore," he said.
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Newsweek is committed to challenging conventional wisdom and finding connections in the search for common ground.
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Brendan Cole is a Newsweek Senior News Reporter based in London, UK. His focus is Russia and Ukraine, in particular ... Read more
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