China Deploys Howitzers As War on Border Threatens To Spill Over

China's armed forces released images on Saturday showing extensive military drills near the country's southern border with Myanmar, where fighting between the country's military junta and rebels threatens to spread across national lines.

The Southern Theater Command of the Chinese People's Liberation Army "deployed howitzers and counter-battery radars in its ongoing live-fire exercise on the Chinese side of the China-Myanmar border," the Chinese state-owned Global Times newspaper said.

The nationalistic tabloid said the PLA sought to "test and show the troops' combat capabilities in safeguarding national sovereignty and border stability amid an armed conflict in the neighboring country."

The timing of the exercise and its potential impact on regional security has drawn international attention. In response to the spotlight, the Global Times said the maneuvers were "part of the annual training plan and aim to test the rapid maneuverability, border sealing and firepower capabilities of the military units of the theater command."

On Tuesday, the Chinese Foreign Ministry said China had sent naval vessels to Myanmar this week for "a four-day friendly visit."

"This is a normal military exchange between China and Myanmar," Wang Wenbin, the ministry's spokesperson, told a regular press briefing in Beijing.

Beijing has backed certain factions within Myanmar's anti-junta coalition—a risky strategy—and observers say any active involvement in Myanmar's civil conflict would come with significant complications, not least because of the possibility of further political instability on its southern border.

"What began as a kind of parochial interest might take on a whole different character if there's an offensive against the state of Myanmar and the armed forces of Myanmar. That is something I don't think China desires," said Avinash Paliwal, a Reader in International Relations at SOAS, University of London.

"The breakup of Myanmar is quite a real possibility here. Even the president of Myanmar went on the record to say that," Paliwal told Newsweek.

China has carried out intensive anti-gambling operations as part of its plan to counter illegal activities inside Myanmar that the ruling junta relies on to earn revenue.

The military government is fighting an internal conflict against a coalition of armed ethnic minority groups, known as the "Three Brotherhood Alliance," that has so far mounted a serious challenge against its rule since the junta overthrew the democratically elected government led by Aung San Suu Kyi in 2021.

The self-described insurgents of the anti-coup movement told The Associated Press on Sunday that they had seized several towns, including the Kyin-San-Kyawt border gate, one of five major trading outposts in the township of Muse on the Chinese border.

Coming in the weeks after the alliance's offensive against Myanmar's military, it marked a notable shift in the state of play, although it was not yet clear how the junta would respond.

The military junta said on Monday it was aware of China's ongoing military drills.

Paliwal said the PLA's moves were not only a response to the nearby conflict but also a wider signal to the West as Beijing aimed to stabilize its border area.

Analysts Priscilla Clapp and Jason Tower wrote in a report for the United States Institute of Peace on November 8: "While the anti-coup movement is united for now in its central aim to remove the military from government, should unity and coordination among the disparate resistance groups break down in the future, it could risk Chinese manipulation, playing one party against another, to assert Chinese national interest over that of Myanmar."

Update 29/11/23, 3:50 a.m. ET: This article was updated with additional context and to correct the title of Avinash Paliwal.