China Has a Putin-Kim Problem

China is facing a quandary over what to do about Russian President Vladimir Putin's alliance of convenience with North Korean Supreme Leader Kim Jong Un, some analysts say.

On one hand, if Pyongyang gets its hands on more advanced Russian military technology, Kim's increasingly overt hostility could exacerbate a regional arms race. On the other, it may present an opportunity to divide U.S. attention between the Korean Peninsula and Taiwan during a conflict with the latter, which Beijing claims sovereignty over.

In recent months, Kim's regime has made a show of abandoning any hope of eventually unifying with its southern neighbor. It amended its constitution to brand Seoul as the "principal enemy," dismantled groups related to North-South cooperation, and knocked down a monument to unification erected decades ago by Kim's father, Kim Jong Il.

"We are deeply concerned about the growing relationship between Russia and the DPRK (North Korea) and what that might mean for Mr. Kim's intentions," a senior [President Joe] Biden administration official said during a January 27 press conference. It came after the latest round of talks between U.S. National Security Adviser Jake Sullivan and Chinese Foreign Minister Wang Yi in Bangkok, Thailand.

The official said Sullivan raised North Korea with his Chinese counterpart during the talks. They also pointed out that Chinese Vice Foreign Minister Sun Weidong had led a delegation to Pyongyang that week and said the "next step would be a call between our envoy and the vice foreign minister upon his return."

Newsweek has reached out to the Chinese, South Korean and Russian embassies in Washington D.C. and the North Korean embassy in Beijing with written requests for comment.

Alleged military exchanges between North Korea and Russia have already raised concern among the U.S. and its allies, particularly South Korea and Japan.

North Korea is accused of providing missiles, artillery shells, and other hardware to help replenish Moscow's stocks—depleted by its ongoing war with Ukraine, in exchange for advanced weapons and technological expertise.

In a January 9 joint-statement, U.S. Secretary of State Antony Blinken joined foreign ministers from more than 40 countries in condemning the alleged weapons transfers.

The U.S. National Security Council has claimed Pyongyang shipped more than 1,000 containers of military equipment from Najin, North Korea, to Dunay, Russia, between September 7 and October 1.

"Putin has demonstrated that he is not Xi's vassal as some analysts like to portray. Putin's superpower is to be a disrupter, and he can create headaches for Xi," Theresa Fallon, director of Brussels-based think tank the Centre for Russia Europe Asia Studies, told Newsweek Wednesday, referring to Chinese President Xi Jinping.

"Putin reaching out for much-needed munitions from North Korea for his war in Ukraine and alleged transfer of advanced technology and weapons to the DPRK in return made both Japan and South Korea extremely concerned," she added.

This heightened insecurity in Northeast Asia may convince regional players to drive up military spending—"an outcome unfavorable to Beijing"—Fallon said.

Japan already has plans to raise its defense spending to 2 percent of its GDP, while China has committed considerable coast guard resources to asserting its claim over the disputed Senkaku Islands.

China may also be concerned the U.S. could step up its involvement on the Korean Peninsula, where it stations over 28,000 troops, if North Korea flexes weapons platforms built with advanced Russian technology, Center for Naval Analyses senior analyst Ken Gause told news outlet Voice of America.

The U.S. and its South Korean and Japanese allies are already on heightened alert in light of the North's intercontinental ballistic missiles, such as the Hwasong-18 launched in December, said to be capable of reaching the continental U.S.

Other experts think Beijing sees the burgeoning Moscow-Pyongyang alliance as a positive development.

"For its own sake, I'm sure Beijing sees more good than bad coming from anything that hurts [the] U.S. and/or U.S.-aligned interests. Hence Xi Jinping is likely to smile at enhanced Moscow-Pyongyang military cooperation and exchanges," Asia scholar Sean King, senior vice president of New York-based consultancy Park Strategies, told Newsweek Tuesday.

"I think the threat of a coordinated two-front Korea/Taiwan war is overhyped, but I nonetheless suspect Beijing is eager to see how North Korean weapons fare in any real-life combat situation against U.S.-friendly forces," he said.

Inter-Korean ties continue to fray on the back of reciprocal launches of surveillance satellites, joint U.S.-Japan-South Korea military drills, and the abandonment of a key North-South military agreement inked in 2018 to reduce the risk of hostilities.

In a January 11 report, the North Korea-focused analysis group 38 North said the situation on the Korean Peninsula is now more dangerous than it has been at any point since major fighting ended in 1953.