How China Now Rules the Waves

China is churning out fishing vessels and warships at an eye-watering pace that no country can match, according to shipbuilding data across various industries.

China's expansion of sea power, both for commercial and military purposes, has also seen it become the world's largest shipowner by tonnage.

The People's Liberation Army Navy is now the biggest in the world by hull count—it launched 30 ships last year only. According to the Pentagon, the Chinese Navy currently has 370 ships, compared to the U.S. fleet size of 291 major surface combatants, submarines, aircraft carriers and other vessel types.

Over the last decade, the PLA Navy has outbuilt the U.S. Navy by about 25 percent, putting down an aggregate tonnage of over 1 million tons versus around 800,000 tons in the United States, according to analysis by Tom Shugart, an adjunct senior fellow at the Center for a New American Security think tank, on X, formerly Twitter.

Based on current estimates by the U.S. Defense Department, China will continue to grow its vessel count from 395 ships by 2025 to 435 ships by 2030. On the other hand, while China's military fleet expands, the size of the U.S. fleet will drop—to 285 ships by 2025 and 290 ships by 2030.

The U.S. Navy remains the larger naval fleet by overall tonnage, but that is also changing fast. This year, China once again ramped up the building of warships after a brief break from 2019-2022. It is also expected to quickly catch up to and supplant America in that data point.

Beijing's naval power is also expanding in the deep seas: China will have 80 submarines by 2035, according to the Pentagon, based on current submarine construction activity. In contrast, the U.S. submarine fleet will stand at 57 boats by 2030, with Washington struggling to repair its existing fleet.

The U.S. nuclear submarine fleet is superior to China's in terms of capabilities, but U.S. assessments suggest Washington will need help servicing its existing fleet in the future while trying to keep up with PLA Navy.

From Coast to Coast

China now has the world's largest coast guard fleet, too, outstripping the rest of the world's coastal defense capacity. Beijing can call on roughly 150 coast guard ships with a displacement of at least 1,000 tons compared to Japan's 70 and the U.S.'s 60 ships of the same size, while only a handful of Asian countries have coast guard ships of that caliber.

In recent years, Beijing's massive buildup of the China Coast Guard has been most visible to the world as a tool to assert the country's territorial claims in disputes with neighbors including the Philippines, which has led to a number of tense run-ins in the South China Sea.

Elsewhere, in the East China Sea, China's maritime law enforcement vessels have also been putting the squeeze on Japan around the contested Senkaku Islands, which Beijing claims as Diaoyu.

On the other hand, China's expanded coast guard activity has had the effect of drawing Tokyo and Manila closer together for unprecedented security cooperation.

Fishing the World

China's commercial fishing fleet has near-global reach, with China-flagged boats now found in waters around Japan to the Cape of Good Hope on the southern tip of Africa and beyond. Chinese vessels are traveling as far as the Falklands (Malvinas) off the coast of Argentina to catch squid.

Since 2013, China's Pacific fishing fleet has grown more than 500 percent to over half a million vessels. By the end of this decade, China will account for 37 percent of the world's global fish catch, leaving behind all other countries, according to the World Bank.

A recent U.S. Coast Guard inspection off the coast of Peru—to counter illegal fishing on the high seas—identified China's fishing fleet as the leading group carrying out the most extensive operations close to the South American nation's coast.

A recent video captured from a U.S. Coast Guard C-130 plane showed hundreds of fishing vessels close to Peru, many likely originating from China, though the service did not mention China by name.

Dual Use

China's commercial fleet can be called upon to serve Beijing's national defense agenda, according to a 2016 law that included the fishing fleet in its overall military capabilities.

China has recently become the largest commercial shipowner in the world, surpassing Greece with 249.2 million gross tons and 15.9 percent of global market share. China may have beaten Greece in overall tonnage, but Greek ships carry more cargo, according to the U.K.-based Clarkson Research Service.

"China's shipping industry has been in a continuous state of development, and our role as the world's largest manufacturing hub remains steadfast. These factors contribute to the high ranking," Li Yanqing, secretary-general of the China Association of the National Shipbuilding Industry, told the state-owned Global Times newspaper in August.

Another piece of China's growing maritime capability is so-called roll-on/roll-off ships, or "ro-ros," used to transport cars, trucks, buses and trailers to offshore locations. The vessels are already a crucial means of transporting electric vehicles (EVs) manufactured in China to locations worldwide as the demand for Chinese EVs has grown.

However, PLA military strategists have seriously considered the idea of using ro-ros during an attack on Taiwan, to ferry soldiers and armor across the Taiwan Strait onto the island's beaches. China has increased ro-ro ship production and is set to launch 200 such ships from 2023-2026.

China's expanding naval capabilities go hand in hand with its search for port access around the world. China is building up the Ream Naval Base in Cambodia, which it is expected to use to dock its own naval ships.

In Peru, meanwhile, Chinese company COSCO Shipping is constructing a large Pacific port that could be used for basing its military vessels in the future.