How China Cut Off One of Ukraine's Most Important Weapons

Ukraine is finding it challenging to source drones and drone parts from Chinese suppliers due to new export control restrictions imposed by Beijing, new analysis suggests.

Drone warfare has become a deciding factor in the Ukraine war as both sides have extensively deployed commercial and civilian unmanned craft across battle lines. Kyiv loses an estimated 10,000 drones per month, according to an analysis by the Royal United Services Institute, a British think tank.

Beijing says it remains a neutral party in Russia's invasion, which is fast approaching its 19th month. It has tiptoed around questions concerning the legality of Vladimir Putin's military campaign, while its top leaders, including President Xi Jinping, have railed against Western aid for Ukraine and sanctions on China's strategically important neighbor.

China sits in the middle of the drone supply chain and controls a majority share of the commercial drone industry as well as the supply of components. Beijing is now using its dominance of the supply chain for political gain, and perhaps to support the Kremlin, too.

In July, China introduced export controls, which went into effect on September 1, on certain types of drones and equipment in order to safeguard "national security and interests." At the time, observers said the restrictions were a possible response to the trade war with the United States as Washington has tried to stop Beijing from accessing critical technologies such as next-generation semiconductors.

A report by The New York Times, published over the weekend, confirmed that China's export controls instead had the effect of stopping Ukrainian forces from accessing commercial drones and drone equipment. The paper's analysis of trade data and interviews with Ukrainian drone makers and suppliers revealed that Chinese companies had cut back on the sale of drones and drone parts.

Back in July, meanwhile, a Nikkei Asia report said China had been assisting Russia with the supply of drones, chips and other critical war-fighting components.

China's export controls were creating hurdles for Ukraine, which received $200,000 worth of drones from Chinese companies between January and June this year, according The Times. Russia received $14.5 million in direct drone sales from Chinese companies during the same period, the report said.

Several Ukrainian drone companies and pilots told the newspaper that Chinese companies had stopped supplying parts. Ukrainians were looking for alternative sources, they said.

"We have to reinvent more and more complicated supply chains," Maria Berlinska, head of the Victory Drones project in Ukraine, told The Times.

"China always handles the export of military items in a prudent and responsible manner and acts in strict accordance with domestic laws and regulations and our due international obligations," said Liu Pengyu, a spokesperson for the Chinese Embassy in Washington, D.C.

Liu told Newsweek: "We will continue to act on 'China's position on a political settlement of the Ukraine Crisis,' and continue to play our constructive role for a political settlement of the crisis."

While restricting drone equipment to Ukraine, China has supplied components used in Russia's unnamed aerial vehicle fleets since the beginning of the war, accounting for up to 67 percent of the parts the Kremlin's armed forces have sourced, according to a research report by the Kyiv School of Economics.

When it came to critical components, Chinese companies were the origin of 85-90 percent of parts delivered to Russia, the report said.

Beijing has a clear strategy behind the drone supply restrictions, at least one subject-matter expert said.

"China, by limiting supplies, may covertly try to reduce the combat potential of Ukraine, increase the advantages of Russian armed forced, and thus create the conditions for bringing Ukraine to surrender," said Yurii Poita, who heads the Asia-Pacific section of the Center for Army, Conversion and Disarmament Studies in Ukraine.

Poita told Newsweek that certain Ukrainian companies were no longer relying on China for drone parts after facing severe delays.

Last week, the U.S. Commerce Department blacklisted 11 new Chinese companies for aiding Moscow and Tehran in securing drone technology. Washington is likely to impose further sanctions on Chinese companies found to be assisting Russia's drone supply and in other critical technologies.

Update 10/3/23, 2:50 a.m.: This article was updated with additional comments.