China's Ominous Warning to a European Nation

Taiwan is seeking to open a representative office in the Estonian capital of Tallinn, drawing the ire of China, whose ambassador has threatened to withdraw from the Baltic country if the plan goes through.

Guo Xiaomei, the Chinese envoy, delivered the warning during a meeting with the chairman of the Estonia-China parliamentary group, Toomas Kivimagi.

China says the office would be a breach of its "one China" policy, which requires countries it has relations with to acknowledge that the People's Republic of China, and not Taiwan, is the legal representative of "China." Beijing also claims sovereignty over Taiwan, although the Chinese Communist Party government has never ruled there.

"We firmly oppose any form of official interaction between the Taiwan region and countries having diplomatic ties with China and oppose any action supporting Taiwan independence separatist forces," Chinese foreign ministry spokesperson Wang Wenbin said at Wednesday's regular press conference.

However, leaders in the country of 1.3 million people say the office, with functions limited to economic and cultural services—not diplomatic ones—does not violate its commitments to China. It would also reportedly be opened in the name of "Taipei" rather than "Taiwan"—which is considered less controversial.

"Estonia does not recognize Taiwan as a state. As part of the 'One China Policy,' we are not developing political relations with Taiwan," Estonian Foreign Minister Margus Tsahkna said in a statement shared with Newsweek.

"At the same time, we consider it important to boost relations in domains such as the economy, education, culture, relations between NGOs, and other similar fields. We also support Taiwan's participation in international life in areas of global importance, such as the fight against pandemics and Taiwan's attendance at the World Health Assembly," he added.

Due to Chinese pressure, Taiwan has not in recent years been allowed to join meetings of the World Health Organization's decision-making body, even as an observer.

Although the country values "a constructive relationship with Beijing," Tsahkna said it's also important to safeguard national values like democracy and human rights.

Estonia and Taiwan have "affirmed establishing an office is of great significance to strengthening bilateral exchanges, but we have not yet reached a consensus," Taiwanese Foreign Ministry spokesperson Jeff Liu told Newsweek on Thursday.

Liu said he had no comment on the China's relationship with Estonia.

Estonia isn't the first Baltic country to draw China's ire over a Taiwan office. After Lithuania allowed Taiwan to open one in 2021, Beijing hit the country with tariffs, including secondary sanctions on companies from third countries, like Germany, that sourced Lithuanian parts for their products.

The move didn't have the desired effect. Lithuania had limited exposure to the Chinese economy due to a relatively low amount of bilateral trade.

In addition, the European Union rallied around its member. The 27-country bloc accused China of "coercion" and asked the World Trade Organization to intervene.

"Lithuania's decision to turn to Taiwan, away from China, set a precedent for its Baltic neighbors facing similar threats from China—and Russia. But the EU's response to Beijing's coercion against Lithuania also set a precedent for joint EU-level response to coercion, sending a message to Beijing that the bloc is ready to protect the interests of its member states against external pressure," Zsuzsa Ferenczy, a former political adviser to the European Parliament and an associate researcher for Belgian university Vrije Universiteit Brussel, told Newsweek.

Ferenczy said this resolve has only been strengthened in light of the support China has shown for Russia's invasion of Ukraine and that it's not in Beijing's interests to once again take serious action against an EU member on this issue.

"While Beijing will protest against any embrace of Taiwan, it has also been trying to rebuild the damage its coercion against Lithuania has done to EU-China ties. Beijing's response will tell whether it has learned from the lesson," she said.

When China issued its warning to Estonia, Taiwanese Foreign Minister Joseph Wu was in the country as part of a six-day tour of the Baltic states.

"We may be small, but a strong bond of democracies can make us mightier than we could ever imagine," Wu proclaimed in a speech in Tallinn on Wednesday.