COP28: Five Things Scientists Want to See Happen As Conference Begins Today

COP28, a climate conference bringing together world leaders and scientists from all around the world, kicks off today.

Running until December 12, this is the 28th "Conference of the Parties". This refers to the 198 parties who signed the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change in Brazil in 1992.

More than 70,000 people are due to attend this year's event, which will be hosted in Dubai in the United Arab Emirates, with the COP president being chosen to be Sultan Ahmed Al Jaber, head of the UAE's national oil company ADNOC. Others attending will include numerous lobbyists, non-government organizations (NGOs), international organizations, and scientists from across the globe.

This year's event will feature the first-ever global stocktake of how much progress has been made towards the goals of the Paris Climate Change Agreement. This was ratified at the COP21 conference in 2015, with an agreement to limit global warming to a 1.5 degrees Celsius (2.7 degrees Fahrenheit) rise by 2050, compared to pre-industrial levels.

Scientists are hopeful that a number of important issues will be raised at the conference.

1. Adaptations to a Changing Climate

In the face of our temperature and emissions goals not being achieved, other scientists hope that plans are being made to prepare for a world facing a rapidly changing climate.

"Climate change is an established fact. Whilst global efforts to cut emissions, transition to carbon-neutral economies, and slow the pace of global warming are essential, it is imperative that we simultaneously adapt to the many climate consequences we face so we can protect our communities," David Hannah, a professor of hydrology at the University of Birmingham and director of the Birmingham Institute for Sustainability and Climate Action, told Newsweek.

"Adaptation is essential to ensuring that global policymakers understand the necessary changes in processes, practices, and structures to moderate potential damages or to benefit from opportunities associated with climate change. Put simply, policymakers around the world must develop solutions and implement actions to respond to current and future climate change impacts, both domestically, and on a global scale.
These solutions will take varied forms, depending on the unique context of a community, organization, country, or region.

There is no one-size-fits-all solution, and adaptation may range from building flood defenses, setting up early warning systems for extreme weather activity, and switching to climate-resistant crops, to redesigning the way we communicate risk, business behavior and government policy.

"This work is already underway but sustained action and ambition are needed to manage risks cost-effectively, both now and in the future," Hannah said. "At COP28, national and international policymakers have a unique opportunity to advocate for impactful interventions which are vital to global adaptation and resilience."

This is crucial, as a report being presented at COP28 reveals the impacts that our warming of the planet will have across the world.

"Warming over 1.5 - 2°C will: trigger massive ice-sheet melt, result in the loss of many mountain glaciers, lead to extensive permafrost thaw, and cause the Arctic Ocean to be largely free of sea ice in the summers," Lauren Vargo, a research fellow at the Antarctic Research Centre at Victoria University of Wellington, said in the statement

"Thawing permafrost will emit more CO2 and methane, adding to continued temperature rise. Less sea ice in the ocean will alter global climate and weather (sea ice reflects 50 to 70 percent of incoming energy, whereas the open ocean only reflects around 6 percent)."

Ice melting will cause sea levels to rise around the world, causing flooding in low-lying areas and cities affected by storm surges.

"Without substantial and rapid emissions reductions globally, we face an increasing likelihood of further and more severe extreme weather events, and that various fundamental components of the Earth system (e.g., polar ice sheets, ocean currents, tropical rainforests) will come ever closer to tipping points that once passed will likely lead to major and irreversible changes in the context of human lifetimes," Daniel Kingston, a senior lecturer at the University of Otago, Dunedin, New Zealand, said in a statement.

2. Addressing Greenwashing

Scientists also hope that companies will be held accountable for greenwashing. This is a term used to refer to practices that make a firm seem much more environmentally friendly than they actually are.

"Greenwashing by corporations and the fund management industry is rife. Regulators globally are taking more action on this, but it needs to be maintained as a key focus. The regulators need further resourcing, more ambitious mandates and governments must ensure these regulators are acting in line with these mandates," Sebastian Gehricke, senior lecturer, finance and director, Climate and Energy Finance Group, at the University of Otago, said in the statement.

"If we do not have transparency and verification of claims, the private sector cannot align with climate goals, even if these are the surest path to long-term value and wealth generation."

Hisham Farag, a professor of finance at Birmingham University and the founding director of the Sustainable Financial Innovation Research Centre (SFIC), agreed.

"The focus of previous COP summits has rightly been on garnering financial support for the global transition," he told Newsweek. "Tensions exist over the intended beneficiaries of the finances raised. To add to an already complex problem, issues on the governance of climate financing, and the impact of global economies on the climate, remains a murky world. With financing now firmly embedded in the COP agenda, policymakers must play a vital role in securing commitments to implementation, measurement, and reporting."

"To see national and international policymakers advocating for impactful interventions which are vital when ensuring that committed funds are channeled effectively, implemented efficiently, and reported on transparently—allowing the global community to fully understand the impact of global finance initiatives. Global coordination is imperative to strengthen the Santiago Principles and broaden its outreach to countries where Sovereign Wealth Funds exhibit deficiencies in their transparency, disclosure, and accountability. An increase in SWFs transparency and accountability would help reduce the unintended negative consequences while also allowing countries to benefit from the increased capital inflow."

3. Limiting Temperature Rise

Many experts hope that the limiting of increasing temperatures to 2.7 F is heavily addressed, as global efforts are nowhere near on track to this goal.

"Increases in global mean temperature loom large above these individual extremes, with new records set from June through to October," Kingston said. "September was by some margin the warmest month ever in the instrumental record, and 2023 as a whole is highly likely to be the warmest year. Further, the global temperature anomalies experienced in the second half of the year are large enough to have temporarily pushed the planet past the 1.5 C warming threshold.

"Against this backdrop, the recently released UNEP Emissions Gap Report highlights that current global emission reduction commitments put us on track for a warming of 2.5-2.9C - well short of our commitments under the Paris Agreement," Kingston said.

Many hope that COP28 will address the fact that many companies around the world have no target of net zero.

"COP28 needs to address the rate at which companies are changing current practice to realize a target of 1.5 C," Helen Roberts, an associate professor at the University of Otago and director of the Climate and Energy Finance Group, said in the statement. "Some firms have no net zero target and without commitment from businesses the ability to accelerate efforts to address climate change is severely hampered."

4. Slowing Fossil-Fuel Exploration and Emissions

To achieve these temperature goals, scientists say that emissions around the world need to be lessened immediately. They hope to have this discussed in detail at the upcoming conference.

"I have low expectations from what has been described as a "Circus in the Desert"," James Renwick, a professor of physical geography at Victoria University of Wellington, New Zealand, said in the statement.

"We need stronger pledges to reduce emissions (IPCC states that to stop at 1.5C, emissions need to be cut 43 percent by 2030, compared to 2019 levels). The time for serious emissions reductions is now. The UN has stated that COP28 must be a 'can-do COP' where countries show how they will urgently pick up the pace in the next two years (towards the 2025 NDCs)," Renwick added.

5. Funding Reductions in Emissions

Scientists say that, to reduce emissions and achieve our temperature goals, funding needs to be sent to the sectors that will best help us stop burning fossil fuels.

"There is currently still a large gap in the amount of climate financing needed to meet the Paris Agreement goals, estimated between $3-6 trillion annually. A similar gap exists for investments in and funding for nature-based solutions and biodiversity loss, with current estimates, which I believe are at the lower end of reality, putting $1.9 trillion of assets at risk due to biodiversity loss," Gehricke said.

"A large part of this financing gap will need to be filled by private capital. The global developed countries have still not met the pledge to provide climate finance of $100 billion per year to developing nations and some have questioned what is being labeled as climate finance," Gehricke added.

"To address these gaps we need enabling policy reforms globally, continue to advance the financial incentives (carrots and sticks) in alignment with these goals, and regulatory oversight which swiftly deals with greenwashing and other misleading claims, so that those truly embracing impact are enabled to grow and scale their activities and new players and ideas are able to come to the forefront," Gehricke said.

Scientists also hope that funding will be limited to companies and industries that actively worsen climate change, including fossil-fuel exploration.

"On the back of record profits for the fossil fuel industry, many are now expanding exploration, tapping new resources and lowering their climate ambitions. This is extremely problematic and such projects should no longer be allowed," Gehricke said.

"The largest holders of reserves (fossil-fuel assets) already hold enough potential emissions to exhaust our global carbon budgets more than three times over and expanding these reserves is not only detrimental to our global commitments, but actually increases the stranded asset risk for these entities and their investors. These risks are so large and systemic that when the assets are stranded, the negative consequences will reverberate through all of our economies and affect all."

Update 11/30/23, 12:54 a.m. ET: This article was updated to include comments from Hisham Farag and David Hannah.

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