President Joe Biden's lead on former President Donald Trump in the 2024 race to the White House shrinks when independent candidate Cornel West is on the ballot, according to new polling data.
A poll conducted by Quinnipiac University from October 26 to October 30 with a sample size of 1,772 people showed Biden ahead of Trump when the two share the ballot with environmental lawyer Robert F. Kennedy, Jr., who strayed from his family's Democratic legacy to run as an independent.
With Kennedy as an option, Biden received 39 percent of the vote, while Trump trailed with 36 percent. Kennedy received 22 percent of voter support.
However, when West, a progressive philosopher who left the Green Party to run as an independent, is thrown into the mix, Biden's lead on Trump decreases slightly, with Biden receiving 36 percent of the vote, with Trump at 35 percent. Kennedy received 19 percent in this scenario, as West garnered 6 percent.
Independent voters may play a pivotal role in the 2024 election. In 2016, they narrowly favored Trump, by four points, in his battle with former U.S. Secretary of State Hillary Clinton. However, they sided with Biden in 2020, with the president accumulating a 14-point lead among independents nationally.
Three years ago, Biden held the largest edge among independents since former President Bill Clinton's reelection win against Republican Bob Dole.
However, when looking at a matchup between only Biden and Trump, the president leads by a slim 47 percent to 46 percent margin, as 94 percent of Democrats support Biden and 94 percent of Republicans support Trump.
Independents are more divided at the moment, with Trump holding a razor-thin edge of 45 percent to Biden's 44 percent.
While the election is still a year away, Kevin Wagner, pollster and professor at Florida Atlantic University, previously told Newsweek via email, "Incumbent presidents generally have a good track record for reelection in the modern era."
Newsweek reached out to Wagner via email for comment on Wednesday.
Biden, however, has a disapproval rating of 53.9 percent compared to 39.5 percent approval, according to current polling data aggregated by FiveThirtyEight.
Biden's favorability is historically lower than his predecessors who went on to serve a second term at the same point in their presidency.
By day 1,015 of their respective presidencies, Barack Obama was viewed more favorably by nearly five percentage points, George W. Bush by over 10 percent and Bill Clinton by 7.4 percent. Ronald Reagan was also viewed more favorably by more than seven percentage points.
Trump is the GOP front-runner and his fellow party candidates continue to drop out of the race, including former Vice President Mike Pence, who announced on Saturday that he would be suspending his White House bid.
Overall, however, 54.7 percent of Americans have an unfavorable opinion of Trump while 40.3 percent have a favorable opinion, according to current polling data aggregated by FiveThirtyEight.
Uncommon Knowledge
Newsweek is committed to challenging conventional wisdom and finding connections in the search for common ground.
Newsweek is committed to challenging conventional wisdom and finding connections in the search for common ground.
About the writer
Rachel Dobkin is a Newsweek reporter based in New York. Her focus is reporting on politics. Rachel joined Newsweek in ... Read more
