Democracy: Nigeria's Bad Example

Whether Gen. Ibrahim Babangida is a shameless liar bent on self-preservation, as many Nigerians claim, or a hard-nosed reformer, as he portrays himself, he has botched the job. The military leader, who seized power in 1985, insists he will restore Nigeria to civilian rule on Aug. 27, That promise didn't stop him from voiding the results of the June 12 presidential elections, which many international monitors called the cleanest in the nation's history. In protest, about 100,000 people last week took to the streets of Lagos, rioting and looting; at least 15 people died. As Babangida's tanks and troops restored order in the city, the general tried to cut a deal with the leaders of Nigeria's two political parties. He promised not to snuff out democracy altogether, if the parties participated in his handpicked "interim national government." But the attempt soon stalled, thanks to furious dissent within the Social Democratic Party, which had fielded the vote's apparent winner, Moshood Abiola-a family friend and one of two candidates Babangida had personally chosen. Abiola himself refused to concede. "I was elected by the Nigerian people," he declared last week. "That is not subject to negotiation."

Africa's other surviving despots are raptly watching the struggle. As the continent's most populous and influential country, Nigeria sets an example for the region's other states. "They may well feel there is no need to democratize if Nigeria doesn't do it," warns Anthony Kirk-Greene, an Africa specialist at Oxford University. To head off a grass-roots rebellion, Babangida has begun jailing dissenters. So far, most Nigerians have reacted to the crackdown by carrying on with their daily lives. But Babangida's tactics may backfire: once set in motion, pro-democracy activists aren't likely to let up.