In an evenly-divided Senate, Democrats hold an extremely narrow majority with Vice President Kamala Harris' tie-breaking vote. In order to keep control of the Senate after the upcoming midterm elections, the party will need to hold onto the 50 seats they have.
However, there is one hypothetical scenario in which Democrats could still keep control of the Senate if they lost an incumbent seat. Presuming that all the other seats remain the same, Democrats could afford to lose one seat in Nevada—as long as they successfully flip an open one in Pennsylvania.
The Senate races in Nevada and Pennsylvania are both hotly contested toss-ups that have narrowed in recent weeks. With a week until Election Day, candidates in both races are within one point of each other.
The Democrats have a smaller lead in Nevada, where Democratic Senator Cathrine Cortez Masto is fighting off Republican challenger Adam Laxalt. FiveThirtyEight's Tuesday forecast shows Cortez Masto ahead by 0.4 points in the neck-and-neck race, a more favorable advantage than other pollsters are predicting.
The New York Times' final midterm poll, which was released Monday, had the Nevada race evenly tied, 47 to 47 percent. RealClearPolitics's projection has Laxalt with a 0.6 lead over the Democratic incumbent.
Given the closeness of the race, losing a seat is one outcome the Democrats will have to seriously consider as a possibility next week.
However, Democrats may be able to lose that seat in Nevada and continue to maintain control of the chamber if their efforts in Pennsylvania pay off. Candidates in the Keystone State are battling over an open seat left by GOP Senator Pat Toomey, who announced he would not run for a third term back in October 2020.
Both Democrats and Republicans have pooled their resources into Pennsylvania in hopes of winning the seat. Democratic candidate and the state's lieutenant governor John Fetterman has held a commanding lead throughout the election cycle, at times leading by double digits over Republican candidate Mehmet Oz.
However, Oz has rapidly narrowed the gap over the last month, only trailing behind Fetterman by 1.1 point, as of Tuesday's FiveThirtyEight forecast. Just a month earlier, Fetterman had led by 5.8 points, and two months ago, the Democrats had an 8.1-point lead.
RealClearPolitics shows a more favorable win for the Democrats. Tuesday's average had Fetterman with a 1.5-point lead. The NYT's Monday poll gave him a six-point lead over Oz.
As long as Democrats can keep their lead over Oz—and the polls reflect the pending results—they could lose their seat in Nevada and still keep control of the Senate, which will be key to getting President Joe Biden's agenda into legislation.
As of Tuesday, FiveThirtyEight is projecting a toss-up for the Senate, with each party having a 50-in-100 chance of winning. The election forecaster suggests that the Republicans' best chances of picking up a seat will be in Nevada and Georgia, while Democrats' odds are highest in Pennsylvania.
Georgia is a relatively tight race, but it has yet to be determined as to whether GOP candidate Herschel Walker's recent controversies may nudge voters to cast their ballots for Democratic incumbent Senator Raphael Warnock.
Uncommon Knowledge
Newsweek is committed to challenging conventional wisdom and finding connections in the search for common ground.
Newsweek is committed to challenging conventional wisdom and finding connections in the search for common ground.
About the writer
Katherine Fung is a Newsweek reporter based in New York City. Her focus is reporting on U.S. and world politics. ... Read more
