Democrats May Still Block Any Biden-McCarthy Debt Limit Deal

President Joe Biden and Republican House leadership appear to be inching toward a deal on the federal debt limit ahead of a deadline to default that some White House officials believe could come as early as June 1.

In a bitterly divided U.S. House of Representatives where House Speaker Kevin McCarthy's control over the chamber is tepid at best, the question is less how a deal will get done, but whether House Republicans can build a coalition necessary to pass one, requiring McCarthy to court Democratic votes to broker a deal.

Throughout the day on Thursday, leaked details of a potential deal between House Republicans and the White House began circulating around Capitol Hill, showing apparent concessions from both sides as the country races toward economic calamity.

Per a copy of the memo obtained by Politico, details of the potential deal included an agreement to lift the debt limit through 2024 in return for Republicans' desired broad-based cuts to discretionary spending, a plan to claw back tens of billions of dollars in unspent money from the COVID-19 pandemic, and agreements to pass a dozen separate spending bills desired by the White House.

While both sides were reportedly still ironing out Republican demands to implement work requirements for certain social safety net programs—a red line for both parties that Biden previously rejected—negotiators appeared optimistic about the prospect of an agreement entering Memorial Day weekend, though it was acknowledged a final deal was still far from finished.

"Speaker McCarthy and I have a very different view of who should bear the burden of additional efforts to get our fiscal house in order," Biden said during a White House event on Thursday. "I don't believe the whole burden should fall on the backs of middle class and working-class Americans."

If negotiators fail to reach a deal by next week, the country will likely default on its debt, resulting in a downgrade of its credit rating that could have calamitous effects across the world economy. And while some have suggested Biden could overstep Congress by invoking his authority under the 14th Amendment, administration officials have cast doubt on its ability to withstand a court challenge, while Biden, a former senator, has a long precedent of deference to the legislative branch.

With narrow margins separating Democrats and Republicans in both the House and the Senate, however, it's very likely any compromise will cause members from both parties to defect. And signs are beginning to show they already are.

As potential details of a deal began to circulate Thursday, some more right-wing members like Representatives Matt Gaetz, Chip Roy, Lauren Boebert and former House Freedom Caucus Chairman Andy Biggs—many of whom opposed McCarthy's bid for the speakership earlier this year—appeared to chafe at the terms, with figures like House Freedom Caucus member and South Carolina Republican Ralph Norman publicly stating his members would support nothing less than the deal they'd struck at a conference earlier this year.

McCarthy, Norman said of the proposal, doesn't have the 218 votes he needs to pass the deal "unless he gets Democrats," adding that if he gets Democrats, that's a "telltale sign" Republicans should not support the deal. On Thursday, 35 House Republicans wrote to the House speaker urging him to "hold the line" on debt limit negotiations or potentially risk alienating their support.

A spokesman from Norman's office told Newsweek on Monday that while Norman personally wanted greater cuts than those outlined in the "Limit, Save, Grow Act" that Republicans passed earlier this year, he characterized the reductions outlined there as "easy, low-hanging fruit," adding "if Democrats are crying over these, then we'll probably see some major temper tantrums from them later this year during the appropriations process."

Ultimately, he argued, the Freedom Caucus' hardline position puts the ball in Democrats' court, even as they've sought to blame Republicans for creating what they've described as a "manufactured crisis."

"If the final deal ends up passing the House with full support of Republicans, then Democrat votes won't be needed," Norman's spokesman Austin Livingston told Newsweek. "If this is the case, any Democrats who vote in favor will be those who came to their senses and realized we cannot continue down the path of financial ruin."

"However, if the final deal alienates House conservatives," he added, "then Democrat votes will be needed. If this is the case, it remains to be seen whether those Democrat votes will be earned because (A) the deal was sufficiently neutered to their liking, or (B) they felt backed into a corner with no other choice."

On Friday, Punchbowl News reported that House Democratic leadership had placed a call to senior White House officials expressing consternation with the pending deal, saying many potential terms of the deal—particularly work requirements—were akin to a poison pill for many progressive members of the party.

However, the likely number of Republicans balking at supporting McCarthy could also put pressure on more moderate, swing-district Democrats to vote for a deal that could cost them politically, potentially jeopardizing Democrats' ability to retake the majority in what is likely to be a contentious 2024 presidential election.

"You can't ask us to support an agreement we have a problem with," House Minority Leader Hakeem Jeffries reportedly told Democratic members during a closed door caucus meeting Thursday. "And the White House is strong in communicating that position."

Newsweek has reached out to the White House Press Office via email for comment.

Update 5/26/2023, 3:19 p.m. ET: This article has been updated with comment from Norman's spokesperson.