Under-fire GOP Representative George Santos could come under further political pressure as Democrats try to redraw the electoral map in New York in their favor.
A lawsuit being brought by New York's Democratic leadership on June 8 will reopen a legal dispute over congressional districts from 2022 that left the state's Midterm elections being run on a map drawn up by a special master selected by a judge.
The outcome of the case could have far-reaching effects: the Democrats lost control of the U.S. House of Representatives by four seats in 2022, while Republicans flipped four seats red in New York. Redistricting New York in favor of Democrats could see those seats flip back—including marginal ones such as Santos', who was elected as representative for the first time in the 3rd district.
Maps originally produced by a non-partisan Independent Redistricting Commission (IRC) were rejected by the state's legislature. A subsequent attempt was later found by the New York Supreme Court to have been unconstitutionally drawn with political bias in favor of Democrats.
According to Dave's Redistricting, a political maps analysis tool, under plans drawn up by the New York legislature, the 3rd congressional district would have had a Democratic lean of 58.2 percent to a Republican lean of 40 percent. Under the map used in the election, it had a 56.4 percent Democrat lean to 42 percent Republican.
Santos would go on to win the seat by 53.8 percent to 46.2 percent for his Democratic rival, Robert Zimmerman. Santos has since faced months of criticism for lies made during his campaign, and now faces a 13-count indictment, including charges of wire fraud, money laundering and theft of public funds. Santos denies the allegations and has vowed to campaign for reelection.
Now New York's Democratic Gov. Kathy Hochul and Attorney General Letitia James are hoping to convince a court that the IRC should be able to produce new congressional maps for the next election in 2024, rather than using the special master's until the next census is taken in 2030.
While Hochul has said the lawsuit is intended to "ensure accountability and fairness for New York voters," others have suggested it may be an effort to restore lines favorable to Democrat candidates.
Gerrymandering is the manipulation of electoral boundaries to influence the proportion of votes in that constituency in favor of one party or another. As the population grows and shifts, district borders have to be redrawn so constituents are fairly represented—but it is a delicate process to avoid boundary changes having a significant impact on the outcome of elections.
The IRC was split along partisan lines over its own redistricting maps, so submitted two proposals to the state legislature, both of which were rejected. The legislature then abandoned the commission and drafted its own maps.
Brent Peabody, a contributor to Foreign Policy magazine, wrote that the case being brought by Hochul and James "could pave the way for a new Democratic gerrymander." The graduate student at the Harvard Kennedy School added it "could easily nuke 5 GOP seats (including George Santos')."
Newsweek approached the offices of the New York governor and attorney general via email for comment on Monday.
In February 2022, a group of New York voters mounted a legal challenge of the redistricting map. It was brought on the basis that the state's constitution had not been honored as the Democrat-led state legislature had not considered a second round of plans from the commission.
The New York Supreme Court sided with the citizens in March 2022, striking down the maps as being "enacted with political bias and thus in violation of the constitutional prohibition against gerrymandering."
That April, the Court of Appeals declared the maps void and appointed a special master to create a map for the 2022 election. Jonathan Cervas, a fellow at Carnegie Mellon University who has contributed to redistricting in six U.S. states, then created the map that was used for the election.
Hochul and James are now asserting that the special master's map was appropriate for the 2022 election given the time constraints, but that there was now "significant" time for the IRC to generate new maps for the legislature to consider.
On April 7, 2023, they said the New York constitution "is clear that the state legislature must have the opportunity to remedy electoral maps found to be invalid by a court."
"Relying on a process with no accountability and with limited time for public input is not how we engage the public and ensure their interests are addressed throughout this process," James said in a statement.
A dissenting opinion in the case argues that the special master map is the "constitutional default" arrived at through constitutional processes, and so should remain in force until 2030. Arguments will be heard by the appeals division of the New York Supreme Court in June.
Asked if the lawsuit was an attempt by Democrats to recover seats in New York, Richard Briffault, a professor at Columbia Law School, told WAMC public radio on April 16 it "wouldn't surprise" him.
"There are some arguments that the lines broke out some traditional communities, including minority communities, but it is certainly possible," he added. "With a new set of lines drawn with the legislature ultimately involved again, they might be more favorable to Democrats."
Uncommon Knowledge
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Newsweek is committed to challenging conventional wisdom and finding connections in the search for common ground.
About the writer
Aleks Phillips is a Newsweek U.S. News Reporter based in London. His focus is on U.S. politics and the environment. ... Read more
