Some one in four Democrats aren't planning to vote for Joe Biden in this year's presidential election, a poll has shown.
In March, it was confirmed that the Democratic incumbent will face Donald Trump in November, with both winning enough delegates to secure their respective parties' presidential nomination, teeing up a 2020 White House rematch.
Since then, a number of polls have sought to predict the result of the presidential election. Some have suggested Biden is in the lead, while others have predicted Trump will be the victor. In general, though, the polls show the candidates are neck-and-neck and with seven months to go until voters go to the polls, things are likely to change.
In this time, Biden may need to work to court his own base as, according to a Reuters/Ipsos poll of 1,698 Democrat voters, 24 percent don't plan to vote for the incumbent president. The poll was conducted between March 7 and March 13.
Newsweek contacted Biden's campaign by email to comment on this story.
The polling suggests that some Democrats may be moving away from Biden because of his response to the Israel/Gaza war. Some 13 percent of those not voting for Biden said Israel's Gaza response has been excessive, but 12 percent of those not voting for the president said they didn't feel his response has been excessive.
Ipsos also polled 4,094 American adults and found that 36 percent would vote for Trump, but 34 percent would vote for Biden. But the president clinched the vote with registered voters, as 39 percent would vote for him while 38 percent would vote for Trump.
Meanwhile, Biden is leading Trump among previous voters ahead of the presidential election, a separate poll revealed.
According to a Public Opinion Strategies poll of 1,000 people for NBC News, the Democratic incumbent is ahead of his Republican challenger by 9 points among people who voted in the 2020 general election and 2022 mid-term elections.
However, the poll, conducted between April 12 and April 16 also found that 46 percent of overall respondents would vote for Trump in the presidential election, while 44 percent would vote for Biden when only offered the choice of these two candidates. The margin of error is +/- 3.10 percent.
Heath Brown, an associate professor of public policy at City University of New York, previously told Newsweek that the race was "very close," which is why different polls suggest different victors.
"The polling over the last several months indicates this is a very close race. I wouldn't read too much into any one or two polls at this point. The trend seems to be that the campaign will be a very tight one and I suspect the polls will reflect that until November."
Uncommon Knowledge
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Newsweek is committed to challenging conventional wisdom and finding connections in the search for common ground.
About the writer
Kate Plummer is a Newsweek reporter based in London, U.K. Her focus is on U.S. politics and national affairs, and ... Read more
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