Donald Trump is Crushing Joe Biden in Michigan

Donald Trump is leading Joe Biden in Michigan in the U.S. presidential election race, according to a poll

The poll of 1,132 registered voters from CNN conducted from March 13 to 16 found that 50 percent of voters would support Trump in a two-way match-up, while 42 percent would vote for Biden. In a four-way match-up including Robert F. Kennedy Jr. and Cornel West, Trump would receive 40 percent of the vote, while Biden would get 34 percent.

Newsweek reached out to representatives for Trump via email for comment.

The Context

Michigan is a key swing state. Biden took the state from his Republican rival in 2020 after Trump flipped it by less than 0.3 percentage points in 2016. Along with Wisconsin and Pennsylvania, it is one of the so-called "blue wall" states that Biden returned to the Democrats in 2020, helping him win back the White House

Evidence has suggested the seat could flip red again in November's vote. Previous polling for Newsweek in December revealed that the president had a net approval rating of -14 percent in the state.

Michigan has the highest number of Arab Americans in the country and Muslim community leaders from several swing states, including Michigan, pledged to withdraw support for Biden during a conference in Detroit in December because of his refusal to call for a ceasefire in Gaza.

What We Know

According to the CNN poll, 35 percent approve of Biden's performance in Michigan.

Meanwhile, 45 percent of voters said the country would be better off if Republicans win control of the Senate in November. Thirty-five percent said the country would be worse off and 20 percent said there would be no difference.

In the country as a whole, support for Biden and Trump is more evenly split, with most polls dividing the two politicians by just one percentage point.

Views

Thomas Gift, associate professor of political science in the School of Public Policy at University College London, previously told Newsweek that Trump could "make a serious run" at Michigan.

"Michigan has traditionally been a critical brick in the so-called 'blue wall' that's propelled various Democrats to the White House dating back 30 years. Trump was able to flip the Wolverine state narrowly in 2016, and if recent polling is indicative, he looks poised to make a serious run at it again," Gift told Newsweek in December.

"For Biden, low approvals in Michigan reflect a broader trend across the Rust Belt, which extends to states like Pennsylvania, Ohio, and elsewhere, in which the president is failing to resonate both on cultural and kitchen-table issues.

"With broader demographic trends of working-class whites shifting toward the Republican Party, Democrats need to make up for these losses with more mobilization of urban and young voters in places like Detroit, Grand Rapids, and Ann Arbor. Right now, Biden is struggling to do exactly that."

Alyssa Bradley, Michigan communications director for the Biden-Harris campaign, told Newsweek in a statement: "President Biden has delivered over 300,000 jobs, lowered health care premiums for working families, and brought Black unemployment to a historic low, meanwhile Michiganders are all too familiar with Trump's failed agenda that lost over 200,000 jobs in the state, tried to throw people off their health care, and his plan to ban abortion nationwide.

"As Trump pushes his anti-freedom agenda and attacks members of his own Party, the Biden-Harris campaign will continue doing the work to reach Michiganders at their union meetings, in their community centers, and in their homes to share this split screen, and beat Trump and his failed policies in November just like we have for the past three elections in a row."

What's Next?

With eight months until the election, voting preferences could change.

Update 03/22/24, 9:09 a.m. ET: This article was updated with additional information.

Update 03/22/24, 1:52 p.m. ET: This article was updated with a statement from Alyssa Bradley.