Former President Donald Trump has landed an advantage among union voters, a group that traditionally backs Democrats, ahead of the 2024 presidential election.
Union members are a crucial bloc of voters in several swing states such as Michigan, Nevada and Pennsylvania that could determine the outcome of the presidential election next November. President Joe Biden, who has touted his policies aimed at bolstering labor unions, holds a lead among these voters overall, but Trump has found himself with an advantage with regard to enthusiasm, according to a new poll from Suffolk University.
Roughly 46 percent of union members plan on voting for Biden, while only 31 percent say they are supporting Trump in the 2024 election, according to the poll, which surveyed 1,000 registered voters from October 17 to 20.
But when it comes to voter excitement, only 16 percent of union members planning to vote for Biden said they were "very enthusiastic" about him as the Democratic nominee, while 58 percent of Trump's union voters said they are "very enthusiastic" about voting for him.
The data reflects a broader concern for Democrats about Biden. Although the incumbent president has faced only token opposition in the primary election, polls have consistently shown that many Democratic voters want an alternative candidate to run.
Still, Trump's enthusiasm may benefit him more in the primary election, in which he continues to hold a substantial lead over his Republican rivals, than the general election, according to David Paleologos, the director of the Suffolk University Political Research Center.
"Union households play a bigger role in party primaries than in the general election," he said in a statement, noting that the survey found that 38 percent of Trump's union members said nothing would prevent them from voting for Trump.
Newsweek reached out to Biden and Trump's campaigns for comment via email
The poll found that, among all respondents, Biden holds a single-point lead above Trump. Thirty-seven percent said they planned to vote for Biden, while 36 said they intend to support Trump. Another 13 percent are voting for independent Robert F. Kennedy Jr., and four percent said they are voting for independent Cornel West. Another eight percent are undecided.
Union Households Traditionally Back Democrats
Union members have long been a key faction of the Democratic Party, with members historically breaking for Democrats over Republicans, who have embraced anti-union legislation. Trump, however, has sought to make inroads with union members, last month delivering a speech for striking autoworkers in Michigan.
Trump did not win a majority of union members in either his 2016 or 2020 presidential runs.
During the 2020 presidential race, 56 percent of union households voted for Biden, while 40 percent voted for Trump, according to a CNN exit poll.
In 2016, Trump won 46 percent of union voters compared to former Secretary of State Hillary Clinton's 51 percent, according to CNN. That marked a decline from 2012, when union voters backed former President Barack Obama over Senator Mitt Romney by 58-40, according to the Roper Center for Public Opinion.
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Andrew Stanton is a Newsweek weekend reporter based in Maine. His role is reporting on U.S. politics and social issues. ... Read more
