Donald Trump May Not Be Able to Save Mike Johnson

Former President Donald Trump may not be able to save House Speaker Mike Johnson from conservative fury over Ukraine aid, political experts told Newsweek.

Johnson is moving forward with foreign aid bills, including legislation that would provide supplemental aid to Ukraine as it continues fighting Russia's invasion of its easternmost territory.

The move defies the wishes of some conservatives in Congress, including Representative Marjorie Taylor Greene, who oppose the aid and argue it should instead be spent on securing the U.S. Mexico border. Some have threatened to force a vote on a motion to vacate the speakership over the issue. And they might not listen to Trump if he tries to intervene to stop them.

Amid the motion to vacate threats, Johnson last week met with the presumed Republican nominee for the presidential election in Mar-a-Lago. Many details about the private meeting, including what Trump said about Ukraine aid and the motion to vacate, remain unclear.

But Trump did offer praise for Johnson in remarks to reporters after the meeting, saying he is "getting along very well" with the Louisiana Republican.

"It's not an easy situation for any speaker. I think he's doing a very good job. He's doing about as good as you're going to do," he said. "I'm sure that Marjorie understands that. She's a very good friend of mine, and I know she has a lot of respect for the speaker."

Trump also said he was looking at the Ukraine bill and has considered supporting legislation that would provide Kyiv with a loan. Later in the week, however, he responded to a question about the motion to vacate by saying, "Well, we'll see what happens with that."

However, Johnson is still facing a risky situation as it remains unclear whether Trump would be willing or able to save his speakership should conservatives force a vote on the motion to vacate, political experts told Newsweek.

"It's not clear that Speaker Johnson's critics in the House will respond to what former President Trump says. Given that a single member, per the Republican rules, can introduce the motion to vacate, that's a very low bar," said Meena Bose, the executive dean of Hofstra University's Peter S. Kalikow School of Government, Public Policy and International Affairs.

She continued: "It just means that you need one person, and the Republican Party is not unified to begin with. It's not clear that the most far right Republicans would necessarily all be unified if former President Trump called for keeping Johnson in."

In fact, this week, after Trump's comments, Greene's effort to oust Johnson grew in support, with Kentucky Republican Congressman Thomas Massie cosponsoring the motion to vacate.

Tammy Vigil, senior associate dean at Boston University's College of Communication, told Newsweek that she believes Trump may be able to influence some House Republicans, but he may not even be interested in doing so.

"Despite their joint appearance, it does not appear that Trump is particularly interested in saving Johnson. The joint appearance was really a way of Trump hedging his bets so he can claim to have influence if Johnson retains his seat and sees success with the funding bill. If Johnson fails, Trump will simply tout his MAGA faithful and lose no political face among his supporters," she said.

Trump may not be "very reliable as an advocate" to Johnson, she added. Still, Johnson may have more to gain by passing the Ukraine aid bill, as doing so could "deflate the power" of his conservative critics and give him a major accomplishment for his legacy.

Robert Y. Shapiro, a professor of political science at Columbia University, said that Trump has been "highly influential," and that his support could empower Johnson to pursue such a bill.

There is the potential risk that pursuing Ukraine aid could backfire, but there is "good reason" for Johnson to take his chances on this, as it is both the "right thing for Ukraine and the U.S." and will help Republicans electorally, Shapiro said.

"If Trump is thinking straight—which we can't count on—he should see this is good for his party and its effort to maintain its congressional majority in 2025," he said.