Donald Trump's Obamacare Attack Could Backfire Spectacularly

An attack on Obamacare by Donald Trump could backfire, given its enduring popularity among Americans.

In a post on Truth Social, the frontrunner in the Republican primaries criticized former President Barack Obama's signature domestic policy, which was established as the Affordable Care Act (ACA) in 2010 and offers U.S. citizens discounts on government sponsored health insurance plans, calling it "out of control."

"The cost of Obamacare is out of control, plus, it's not good Healthcare," Trump wrote. "I'm seriously looking at alternatives. We had a couple of Republican Senators who campaigned for 6 years against it, and then raised their hands not to terminate it. It was a low point for the Republican Party, but we should never give up!"

The Republican has been consistently critical of the healthcare policy, pledging to repeal it during his 2016 presidential campaign.

In 2017, a Senate vote to repeal and replace the legislation failed and in 2021, the Supreme Court rejected a Republican appeal backed by the then-Trump administration to invalidate Obamacare.

According to latest polling by KFF Health Tracking in May 2023, 59 percent of U.S. adults have a favorable opinion about the policy when it is described as the "Affordable Care Act or Obamacare," while 40 percent view the act unfavorably, which suggests Trump may fail to drum up support by attacking it.

KFF data also shows the proportion of people enrolled in the ACA is high in key battleground states like Georgia and North Carolina. Differing stances on Obamacare could swing voters in the 2024 election, and Thomas Gift, a politics professor at University College London, told Newsweek that Trump will "need swing states to retake the White House."

Newsweek has contacted representatives for Trump to comment on this story.

Reacting to Trump's post on Truth Social, President Joe Biden's campaign spokesperson Ammar Moussa suggested the Biden administration may focus on Obamacare as part of the reelection campaign. He said on X, formerly Twitter: "Donald Trump is right back to talking about repealing the Affordable Care Act."

In a statement issued to Semafor, he added: "40 million people—more than one in 10 Americans—have health insurance today because of the Affordable Care Act and Donald Trump just said he would try to rip it away if he returns to power.

"He was one vote away from getting it done when he was president—and we should take him at his word that he'll try to do it again."

It is notable that while Trump used the term "Obamacare," Moussa's response used the term "Affordable Care Act." Polling has indicated that favorability depends to some extent on which term is used, even though they refer to exactly the same policy.

For example, a poll by Gallup in 2013 found that when respondents were asked if they favored the ACA, with no mention of Obamacare, 45 percent approved of it and 49 percent disapproved. When asked if they favored Obamacare, with no mention of the ACA, 38 percent approved of it and 54 percent disapproved.

Similarly, a Morning Consult poll for The New York Times in 2017 found that a total of 35 percent of respondents thought the ACA and Obamacare were either different policies or they didn't know if they were the same or different.

When asked whether they were in favor of Obamacare or not, 45 percent approved and 46 percent disapproved. When asked whether they were in favor of the Affordable Care Act or not, 44 percent approved and 40 percent disapproved.

Robert Shrum, a former Democrat political consultant and professor of political science, listed "protecting Obamacare from renewed Trump pledge to repeal it" as one of the factors that will drive the 2024 presidential election.

Speaking to Newsweek, Gift said Trump's pledge "flies in the face of clear polling showing that most Americans, including many Republicans, aren't interested in 'repeal and replace.'

"The former president seems to have warped himself into a time machine back to 2012 where that was a smart Republican talking point. No longer. Especially if Trump is trying to set himself up for the general election—and he should, given his near lock on the GOP nomination—it's an odd pivot for a candidate who's going to need swing votes to retake the White House. Re-litigating Obamacare only appeals to a small sliver of the hard right who Trump already has in his back pocket."

According to the latest figures this year, more than 40 million Americans rely on the ACA.

During the 2020 presidential campaign, Biden vowed to expand and strengthen it.

In 2021, he signed two executive orders aimed at restoring healthcare policies that were weakened during the Trump administration regarding the ACA, Medicaid and protections to women's reproductive health.

Earlier this month, he celebrated the number of Americans enrolling for ACA plans.

Newsweek has contacted representatives for Biden to comment on this story.

Update, 11/28/23, 6:15 a.m. ET: This article was updated with additional background information.