Donald Trump has struck a more moderate chord on abortion rights ahead of the presidential election, with one expert telling Newsweek he had been "pushed into this position" in the face of tight polling numbers.
The presumptive Republican nominee has previously made a number of statements about reproductive rights but has not confirmed whether he believes in a nationwide abortion ban. In January, he said he was "proud" to have appointed the Supreme Court justices who ruled to overturn Roe v. Wade in 2022, the landmark case that guaranteed abortion rights across the country for decades, in the case Dobbs v. Jackson Women's Health Organization.
In March, he voiced support for a specific limit on abortion, suggesting he would support a national ban on abortions at around 15 weeks of pregnancy.
Abortion is a divisive issue. Many Republicans wish to curtail abortions, with a more restrictive ban on abortions after six weeks of pregnancy set to go into effect in Florida next month. However, polls consistently show that most Americans believe abortion should be legal through the initial stages of pregnancy. Meanwhile, polls ahead of the 2024 presidential election are tight, meaning Trump may wish to adopt a conciliatory position to gain more votes.
The decision in Florida, whose Republican governor, Ron DeSantis, is a former Republican presidential hopeful, is widely seen as having put Trump on the spot and left him vulnerable to increasing attacks from the Democratic Party. Trump once described the six-week limit in Florida as a "terrible mistake."
Newsweek contacted a representative for Trump by email to comment on this story.
Posting on his social media platform Truth Social, the Republican indicated he believes in "exceptions" for abortions, writing that it is "common sense" and necessary "to win election."
He said: "I will be putting out my statement on Abortion and Abortion Rights tomorrow morning. Republicans, and all others, must follow their hearts and minds, but remember that, like Ronald Reagan before me, I, and most other Republicans, believe in EXCEPTIONS for Rape, Incest, and Life of the Mother. Great love and compassion must be shown when even thinking about the subject of LIFE, but at the same time we must use common sense in realizing that we have an obligation to the salvation of our Nation, which is currently in serious DECLINE, TO WIN ELECTIONS, without which we will have nothing other than failure, death, and destruction. We will not let that happen. We will, MAKE AMERICA GREAT AGAIN!"
Whether Trump or Democratic candidate Joe Biden wins November's presidential election is hard to tell, commentators have said.
An Emerson College poll of 1,438 registered voters, conducted from April 2 to 3, put Trump at 43 percent against 42 percent for Biden and 8 percent for independent candidate Robert F. Kennedy Jr. In a straight head-to-head with all other candidates and undecided voters removed, the Republican challenger had 51 percent of the vote against 49 percent for the Democratic incumbent. However, among very likely voters, Biden is ahead 51 to 49, said Spencer Kimball, executive director of Emerson College Polling.
A YouGov survey, conducted for The Economist, had Trump and Biden tied at 43 percent each with Kennedy Jr. third at 2 percent. This survey of 1,601 registered voters took place between March 30 and April 2.
Meanwhile, two surveys by Morning Consult and Big Village at the end of March both gave Biden a two-point lead over his challenger and according to Polymarket, an online prediction platform where users can bet on world events, Biden's odds of victory in November has increased substantially since February.
Speaking to Newsweek, Scott Lucas, a professor in international politics at University College Dublin, said the abortion debate could decide the 2024 election.
He said: "Trump has been vague, inconsistent, even incoherent on abortion not just for months but for years."
He added that Trump has been "pushed into this position" of making a stance because women's rights "will be one of the leading issues in the election."
"It appears to be an issue where the Republicans are on the back foot," he added, saying Trump has faced pressure from pro-life and abortion rights activists alike.
"This could be one of the key issues that decides the election in November," he said.
Update, 4/8/24, 1:45 p.m. ET: This article was updated with additional information.
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Kate Plummer is a Newsweek reporter based in London, U.K. Her focus is on U.S. politics and national affairs, and ... Read more
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