Former President Donald Trump's support for constructing a border wall along the U.S.-Mexico border helped propel him to victory during the Iowa caucus Monday night.
Iowa voters battled frigid temperatures to make their selection in the first nominating contest of the 2024 primaries. Republican voters chose among candidates including Trump, Florida Governor Ron DeSantis, former United Nations Ambassador and South Carolina Governor Nikki Haley and entrepreneur Vivek Ramaswamy.
Trump secured a major victory over his Republican rivals, winning 51 percent of the vote. DeSantis garnered support from about 21 percent of voters, Haley earned the backing of about 19 percent of voters, and less than 8 percent of voters chose Ramaswamy in the Iowa caucuses. Ramaswamy has since suspended his presidential campaign.
Immigration was a substantial issue for Republican voters who attended the caucuses, with many supporting Trump's policies on border control, according to Associated Press Votecast. Trump embraced sharply conservative rhetoric and policies surrounding immigration. His message at times sparked controversy among the public but resonated with Iowa conservatives, who cast the first votes in the 2024 Republican presidential primary this week.
His landmark immigration policy, the U.S.-Mexico border wall, is still popular with Republican voters.
About 9 in 10 caucus-goers said they supported building the wall, an increase from 2016, when only about 7 in 10 said they supported the idea, reported AP. About three-quarters of caucus-goers said they believe immigrants hurt the U.S.
Meanwhile, about 40 percent of caucus-goers said immigration is the most important issue faced by the U.S., and about 60 percent of these voters backed Trump, according to the AP's Votecast.
Immigration and border security has become a crucial issue of the 2024 election as the U.S. grapples with an influx of migrants. Republicans including Trump have called for stricter border measures, while Democrats have accused them of supporting policies they say unfairly targets migrants. There were more than 2.4 million encounters at the U.S.-Mexico border during the 2023 fiscal year, up from roughly 1.7 million in 2021, according to U.S. Customs and Border Protection (CBP) data.
Polls Pointed to Trump's Iowa Victory
Trump's Iowa victory was unsurprising, as polls have shown the former president holding a substantial lead over his opponents throughout the primary season. A strong victory in the Iowa caucus is crucial for presidential candidates, as it helps them build momentum ahead of other early voting states such as New Hampshire, South Carolina and Nevada.
Tammy Vigil, senior associate dean at Boston University's College of Communication, told Newsweek the Iowa caucuses have "a lot of influence on perceptions of candidates and their alleged electability," but noted the state is not particularly representative of others.
"The benefits to performing well in Iowa are that a candidate can gain momentum and glean a lot of media attention that often translates into more donations and more widespread support nationally," Vigil said. "It is important to remember, though, that the winner of Iowa is not always the winner of the nomination."
Robert Y. Shapiro, professor of political science at Columbia University, told Newsweek the Iowa caucuses show "the initial viability of a candidate that can allow the candidate to pick up both additional voters and campaign contributors going into New Hampshire."
He said Trump winning major victories in New Hampshire and South Carolina would be the "end of the challenges to Trump."
"A poor performance without indication of support in later state primaries will end the candidacies of Haley and DeSantis," Shapiro said.
Haley and DeSantis will likely continue running as long as they can manage financially, regardless of how the initial contests go for them, in case Trump is disqualified at some point, Vigil said.
An Insider Advantage poll conducted among 850 likely voters on Thursday found that 51 percent of respondents said they would vote for Trump, while DeSantis and Haley were tied at 17 percent. Seven percent of respondents said they would back Ramaswamy. That poll had a margin of error of plus or minus 4.32 percent.
Conservative voters have rallied behind Trump as he faces legal battles including felony charges accusing him of attempting to overturn the 2020 election result and over his handling of classified documents. Trump maintains his innocence in these cases, accusing prosecutors of targeting him for political purposes—a sentiment that has resonated with GOP voters.
New Hampshire Will Serve as Second Test for Trump Campaign
Trump will now face voters in New Hampshire's "First in the Nation" primary on January 23, in what may result in a tighter race.
Polls have shown Haley gaining ground on Trump in the Granite State, as she hopes her appeal to more traditional conservatives will pay off in the battleground state where Trump's popularity has waned.
FiveThirtyEight's aggregate of recent polling showed Trump continuing to hold a lead in New Hampshire on Monday, winning an average of 43.4 percent of the vote in the latest polls, compared to Haley's 30.3 percent. Two months prior, on November 16, the aggregate showed Trump averaging 44 percent and Haley 19 percent support.
The next nominating round after New Hampshire will be in South Carolina on February 3, and the following will take place in Nevada on February 8 for Republicans and February 6 for Democrats.
Eight years ago, during the 2016 presidential primary, Trump did not win the Iowa caucus. Texas Senator Ted Cruz eked out a victory, winning 27.6 percent of the vote compared to Trump's 24.3 percent. Florida Senator Marco Rubio placed third, winning 23.1 percent.
Uncommon Knowledge
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Newsweek is committed to challenging conventional wisdom and finding connections in the search for common ground.
About the writer
Andrew Stanton is a Newsweek weekend reporter based in Maine. His role is reporting on U.S. politics and social issues. ... Read more
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