"The poll numbers are up because people know what's going on," said former and perhaps future president Donald J. Trump before opening arguments began in his New York criminal trial on Monday. In an indictment brought by Manhattan District Attorney Alvin L. Bragg, Trump stands accused of 34 counts of falsifying business records, all of which are time-barred under New York law but have been elevated to a felony prosecution on the untested legal theory that they were committed to advance what prosecutors claim was a "conspiracy to promote" Trump's election in 2016.
The presiding judge, Juan Merchan, donated in 2020 to President Joe Biden, who is running for reelection against Trump, and to another anti-Trump cause that year. Merchan's daughter Loren is president of a Democrat-aligned political consulting firm whose clients include Congressman Adam Schiff (D-Calif.), who prosecuted Trump's first impeachment trial, and a major Democratic Party fundraising PAC for senatorial candidates.
Despite these apparent conflicts of interest, Merchan has on multiple occasions refused to recuse himself from the case. Instead, he imposed a gag order prohibiting Trump and his attorneys from criticizing him and his family members, as well as all witnesses and members of the New York DA's office except Bragg. During jury selection, Merchan refused to allow attorneys to ask potential jurors about their political beliefs or voting history. The judge further prohibited Trump from attending a U.S. Supreme Court hearing scheduled for later this week and may refuse to allow him to attend his son Barron's high school graduation in May.
The prosecution's main witness, Trump's former attorney Michael Cohen, is a convicted felon who served time for federal campaign finance violations and has an open vendetta against Trump. He titled his 2022 book about the former president Revenge.
Under New York criminal trial regulations, Trump must be present in the courtroom—and not campaigning—at least four days a week for a process that could last up to two months in the middle of the 2024 presidential campaign season.
Trump has pleaded not guilty on all counts and claims the trial is a partisan attempt to block his reelection in November.
Polls show Americans agree with him. According to an AP-NORC poll released last week, only 35 percent of Americans believe Trump acted illegally in the New York case, the lowest figure among his four indictments. These figures have been consistent since March 2023, when Bragg indicted Trump on a theory even the New York Times has called "risky."
Tellingly, the indictment also coincided with the recovery in Trump's political fortunes, which saw him mobilize Republican support and decisively defeat all of his GOP primary rivals in record time.
Despite Trump's continuing prosecution in New York and three other jurisdictions, and in unrelated civil cases, the former president continues to lead Biden in the popular vote in almost all national polls and in several 2020 swing states.
As the trial continues, it is unlikely that Trump's star will fade. News of the event already dominates headlines and is likely to remain there, keeping Trump at the center of public attention despite his confinement to what many Americans—and legal experts—believe is Judge Merchan's kangaroo court.
If Trump is convicted, it stands to reason that a large percentage of Americans will conclude that the trial and its result were, indeed, a political persecution, and that any guilty verdict, which Trump will certainly appeal, should be disregarded in the presidential race.
There is also a significant chance—due to the weakness of the evidence, unreliability of the government's star witness, and Bragg's bizarre legal theory, among other factors—that the jury could acquit Trump or declare a mistrial. This would allow Trump to proclaim not merely his innocence, but a massive victory over a biased legal system that, according to the polls, at least half of Americans believe to be unfair.
If Trump should be reelected in November, he may owe his victory in no small part to Alvin Bragg and Juan Merchan.
Paul du Quenoy is President of the Palm Beach Freedom Institute.
The views expressed in this article are the writer's own.
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