Egg Prices Soar As Bird Flu Keeps Farmers Up at Night

Egg prices across the U.S. have soared amid record-breaking bird flu outbreaks, combined with rising production costs—and the issue is at the top of egg farmers' minds.

Avian influenza has wiped out 57.83 million birds from the start of 2022 to January 11, 2023, making it the deadliest outbreak in history, U.S. Department of Agriculture (USDA) data shows. The previous record was 50.5 million birds in 2015. Infected birds either die of the illness or are culled to prevent the spread of disease among commercial flocks.

Christine Coburn, who runs a small-scale hatchery in Conejos County, southern Colorado, told Newsweek: "The biggest thing is the folks busting down my door for eating eggs due to the high egg prices. I just told my husband [Chuck] I feel like a drug dealer with eggs right now."

With a lack of hens to provide the necessary supply of eggs, the cost of the commodity rises. But despite avian flu being a key concern for farmers at the moment, it isn't the only factor pushing prices skyward.

Holiday Demand

The national average for large brown eggs peaked between December 23 and December 30, 2022, at $3.66 a dozen, according to the latest USDA egg market report. By January 6, this had dropped 30 percent to $2.58—still far higher than the $1.72 national average in November 2021.

Emily Metz, CEO of the American Egg Board, a representative organization of egg farmers, told Newsweek: "We're coming out of a period of our highest demand for eggs, which is always December. Holidays, baking, entertaining—they all center around eggs. So always the market reflects that heightened demand around December. Now we're through that, I think we'll start to see some relief."

However, the national average does not tell the whole story: USDA figures show that as of January 6, a dozen large white eggs cost $4.59 for New York retailers, but $5.17 in the Midwest (the latest recorded advertised national price was $2.26 as on December 9).

"I live in a very poor area of Colorado," Coburn said. "Eggs at the store are over $6 a dozen. I'm still at $3 trying to help the locals. So I have people [all] the time wanting eggs for eating."

"Recent record high egg prices have begun to soften but it will take some before this is reflected at the dairy case," the USDA forecast said in its market report.

Coburn now has at least 10 people a day asking her for eggs in her rural community, including some willing to travel around three miles to collect them. An honor system on the front porch of the hatchery has had to be suspended due to demand.

The Impact of Bird Flu

According to Metz, egg producers in the U.S. typically have a combined flock of around 320 million egg-producing hens. At the moment, this is hovering around 300 million, a decline of around 5-6 percent.

"What's keeping them up at night is bird flu," Metz told Newsweek. Ensuring supply is "what they're working on every single day, to make sure that every single person that wants an egg can have an egg."

"Our farmers have invested hugely in protecting themselves against the virus," Metz added. "Over the last several years, since the last major outbreak in 2015, they've made huge capital investments to improve our biosecurity."

The investments include showering facilities and barriers to prevent migrating birds that are potentially infected from mixing with flocks, all "at their own cost." However, Metz said, "even with these increased prices and some of that money coming back to the farmers, it's not enough to make them whole for the investments they've made to account for that."

Coburn, who has around 500 birds, closed her chicken runs to protect her flock and tests them every six months. She said she can no longer ship to Iowa because avian influenza had been detected in her home state of Colorado as recently as December, adding: "Only a small amount of [my] customers are in Iowa. Thank God."

Other Factors

Bird flu is not the only factor in the price rises; increased input costs into egg production, fuelled by inflation, have contributed to the spike as well.

"What we're hoping, for now, is that market conditions improve across the board, so [egg farmers'] input costs are a little bit lower," Metz said. "Feed would need to return to normal, fuel would be great if it returned to normal, labor costs equalizing and normalizing—I think that's what would make our farmers the happiest right now."

Metz believes that if broader inflationary pressures were to ease, consumers would start to see the cost of eggs fall. "If those costs come down, I think the price of eggs would reflect those costs coming down as well," she said.

While the price of eggs is high, around 18 percent of the cost is going on transportation, USDA figures suggest. "Our farmers are far from reaping the benefits of these market conditions," Metz said. "Some of it is certainly going back to the farmers to help cover those input costs, but I would definitely argue it's not as much to make a lot of our farmers whole."