Fact Check: Republicans Say 87% of American Adults Don't Have Student Loans

President Joe Biden recently signed off on a plan to reduce federal student loan debt across America. The policy, which analysts at Pennsylvania's Wharton School of Business suggest could cost upwards of $300 billion, fulfills a Biden campaign promise.

Biden's move was celebrated by his supporters for easing the financial burden of many student debt holders.

However, his critics called the policy unfair, arguing the costs will fall onto the shoulders of those without student debt.

The Claim

Congressmen Jim Jordan (R-OH), Dan Crenshaw (R-TX), and House Ways and Means Committee Republicans tweeted on August 24, 2022 that the 87 percent of Americans who don't have student loan debt will have to help pay for the debt forgiveness policy.

The Facts

Biden's plan reinstitutes an existing moratorium on student loan payments through the end of the year, and makes borrowers earning less than $125,000 per year eligible for anywhere between $10,000 and $20,000 in student loan forgiveness.

Newsweek has contacted the White House for comment.

The argument that Republicans are making here is that all taxpaying American adults will have to pay for the debt forgiveness policy—unfairly, in their view—even if the vast majority of them have either paid off their college loans or did not have any to begin with.

To calculate this 87 percent estimate, it appears they have taken the number of Americans with federal student debt (estimated to be around 45 million, per the White House) and divided that number by the total U.S. population (around 331.5 million, per the 2020 U.S. Census).

This suggests that around 13 percent have federal student debt outstanding, so 87 percent do not.

However, U.S. Census Bureau data shows that the population total includes children under the age of 18, who would (through no choice of their own) not have student debt, nor would they be directly taxed.

If we exclude children, the over-18 population is around 258 million, so the percentage decreases to 83 percent. Further calculations could reduce this figure even more if, for example, we were to exclude Americans who are otherwise tax-exempt too.

Crenshaw and the Ways and Means Committee refer specifically in their tweets to "87% of American adults".

While Jordan only refers to "87% of Americans" (which is only technically accurate), his spokesperson sent Newsweek a Ways and Means press release on the topic that also referred to "87 percent of American adults."

The spokesman also provided figures from the Federal Reserve Bank of New York, which matched the calculation above, stating: "Their most recent number shows that the total number of borrowers in 2021 Q4 is 43.4 million, out of a total U.S. population in 2021 of 331 million."

When Newsweek contacted the Republican Ways and Means Committee about the discrepancy in the 87% calculation, it presented another set of figures.

It estimated that of the total US adult population (258.3 million), only 36.3 million held public loans that meet the eligibility criteria for debt forgiveness.

Using these figures would suggest that of the adult population only 14% will benefit from the policy. In other words, 86% of adults who have no student debt would have to pay for the policy.

Though it is closer—but still 1% off—the figure quoted by senior Republicans, it also adds a new caveat not present in the original claim.

Furthermore, the Committee's assessment should be treated cautiously. To start, it contradicts the White House statements on debt forgiveness, which categorically states that 43 million people will benefit.

While it's possible that the White House may have presented misleading data about its policy, it's worth bearing in the mind that the Committee's calculation was presented after Newsweek highlighted the flawed math apparently in use elsewhere.

The Committee also said it based its calculations on a Washington Post article from April 2022, which said seven million graduates had private student debt (which is not covered by the forgiveness policy). The article does not provide a primary evidence source for its seven million figure and does not say that only 36.3 million adults have federal student debt.

Newsweek has contacted the White House on several occasions for comment but has not received a reply.

So, the specific claim that 87 percent of American adults will pay for the policy appears to be incorrect. While an alternative calculation has been provided, which suggests the White House may have misled with its figures, the basis of that calculation (for now) should be treated very cautiously.

It is also worth noting that while the majority of Americans may not have student debt, 40 percent have a college degree. Many of those will have paid off their student loans after paying tuition fees that were much lower than present-day rates.

Newsweek has contacted Dan Crenshaw for comment.

Update: 8/31/22, 7:15 a.m. ET: This story was updated to include a additional information provided by Republican Ways and Means Committee.

The Ruling

False.

It appears that the 87 percent estimate was calculated by dividing the total U.S. population (including children, who don't pay tax directly and can't accrue student debt) by the number of citizens with college debts.

Adjusting the figure to only include those aged 18 or over, the number of American adults with no student debt is actually 83 percent.

FACT CHECK BY Newsweek's Fact Check team