France's Defeat in Africa Is A Warning Sign to the US

French President Emmanuel Macron's decision to withdraw his nation's ambassador and troops from Niger in line with demands by the country's current military leadership could serve as a warning to the United States on its posture in a restive region where Washington is looking to enhance its influence.

The French leader had initially taken a defiant stance when the National Council for the Safeguard of the Homeland (CNSP) first deposed Nigerien President Mohamed Bazoum in July and demanded the withdrawal of French ambassador Sylvain Itté, accusing the envoy of the former colonizer of constituting a threat to public order in the West African nation. But, weeks after the military administration withdrew Itte's diplomatic immunity, Macron announced Sunday that the ambassador would leave the country, and some 1,500 French troops would follow by next year.

The exit would mark the latest in a series of French withdrawals from African countries in recent years, including Burkina Faso, the Central African Republic and Mali, amid a wave of anti-French sentiment across parts of the continent.

But as the Pentagon resolves to keep approximately 1,100 troops in place in Niger and boost U.S. military presence in Africa, Nathaniel Powell, an analyst at the Oxford Analytica firm, argued that Washington should take heed of the French setback.

"In terms of the message France's failure in the Sahel sends, especially to the U.S., I think, is that making the success of your security policy dependent on venal, corrupt, and illegitimate regimes carries huge risks," Powell said. "When and if those regimes are overthrown, their foreign backers are often seen as complicit and can lose their influence."

Losing Grip

The French departures from Burkina Faso and Mali also followed political upheavals led by military figures in those two West African states, both of which have emerged as the most ardent supporters of CNSP in Niger. Earlier this month, yet another sudden change in government rocked the region in Gabon, where the presence of French troops also remains now in question.

The events in Niger have the potential to be particularly consequential. Prior to Bazoum's ousting, Niger served as a central hub of the counterterrorism operations of both France and the U.S. in the Sahel region, where militant groups including affiliates of Al-Qaeda and the Islamic State (ISIS) have an active presence.

Powell noted that, unlike the mounting security woes faced by a number of fellow Sahel states, Bazoum's approach was "actually working—at least up to a point."

"I think that's why U.S. and French policymakers had a lot of faith in him," he added. "But, they ignored the country's long history of fraught civil-military relations, Bazoum's repression of the opposition, and the controversial nature of his election. Those are shaky foundations to build a solid partnership on."

With Bazoum under house arrest, however, Washington has sought to engage with the CNSP, despite calling for a restoration of democratic rule. Earlier this month, U.S. Air Forces in Europe and Air Forces Africa commander General James Hecker revealed that such talks led to the resumption of some surveillance and intelligence-gathering missions in Niger, including drone activities.

Allies at Odds

Commenting on the current U.S. force posture in Niger, a spokesperson for U.S. Africa Command (AFRICOM) told Newsweek that there have "been no U.S. policy decisions yet about the long-term U.S. military presence in Niger while we wait for the diplomatic process to work."

And while the spokesperson stated that AFRICOM could not divulge details regarding the nature of the resumed missions in Niger, she stated that "the U.S is not conducting counterterrorism operations with the Niger military forces."

As for France, a French Foreign Ministry spokesperson said in an online statement that the nation "will continue to help Africa fight against terrorism, but we will only do so if it as the request of the democratically elected authorities and regional authorities."

"There have been more Islamist terrorism-related deaths in Niger since the beginning of the coup than there were during the preceding 18 months," the French Foreign Ministry spokesperson added.

But Rama Yade, who previously served as French ambassador to UNESCO and as secretary of state, identified a lack of unclear outcomes in France's military intervention as being among the factors fueling the current backlash.

She also spoke of "a lack of consistency" in Paris' positions when it comes to democracies on the continent. She noted how French officials were quick to condemn the military takeover in Niger but have been less critical of the situation in Chad, where President Mahamat Déby assumed power without elections following the death of his father who was killed while leading an offensive against rebels in April 2021.

"People, they are aware, they are conscious of what's going on," Yade, now senior director of the Atlantic Council's Africa Center, told Newsweek. "They see the double standard and it has catastrophic implications."

With France now facing "the end of an era" for its position in Africa, Yade said the "the U.S. tries to fill the vacuum here by differentiating their strategy from the French," even as the two nations remain allies in the broader fight against terrorism.

"While the French are claiming everywhere that they don't need Niger, they don't need Niger's uranium, etc., giving the impression Niger doesn't matter, economically speaking, for the French," Yade said, "the U.S. and other global powers know that Niger matters."

A Costly Legacy

In addition to political and security-related woes that have hastened France's decline in Africa, however, economic trends have also played an influential role in creating the perception of what Yade called "the too-long presence of the former colonial power" in the Sahel.

Mbaye Bashir Lo, associate professor of the practice of Asian and Middle Eastern studies and international comparative studies at Duke University, also spoke to the economic factors that have helped foster such negativity toward France in Africa, where he said "the repercussions of France's historical economic exploitation of the region continue to impact people's daily lives."

Though the era of French direct rule in Africa officially ended with Algeria's independence in 1962, two years after nearly every other formerly colonized African nation broke away from the empire, France continues to wield influential control over the region's economy, including through the continued use of the euro-pegged CFA franc currency and a sizable private sector presence.

"The enduring weight of French exploitation of these countries is no longer sustainable and has become a driving force behind the political crises witnessed in this part of Africa," Lo told Newsweek. "The political elites who have vested interests in the current French arrangement often find themselves unable or unwilling to address it."

"However," he added, "any military junta, regardless of their initial intentions, can easily garner popular support by simply pointing out these obvious issues."

And in this regard, Lo noted, the U.S. does not carry the same baggage historic or modern, as it has "never engaged in the traditional sense of colonization and exploitation on the African continent, with Liberia and Sierra Leone being distinct arrangements." This argument helps to inform "why some African protests, like the one in Niger, explicitly call for the removal of French military bases while not targeting U.S. bases."

Intensifying Competition

This same line of reasoning supports both China and Russia's growing presence in Africa, where the two nations have forged decades-long relationships, some of which directly aided a broader process of liberation that many Africans see themselves still in the midst of to this day.

"In essence, while France's role in Africa is sparking protests and scrutiny," he added, "we should recognize that each major power has its unique historical and contemporary interactions with the continent, and they are perceived differently by Africans."

The changing geopolitical tides have amounted to "an inflection point for France's influence in Africa, especially in francophone Africa," according to Folashade Soulé, a senior research associate at the Global Economic Governance program of Oxford University's Blavatnik School of Government.

"Emerging strategic partners like Turkey, China and Iran are growing their military footprint in the region," Soulé told Newsweek. "For Western powers, France has often been considered as a compass for joint and multilateral efforts in the region. Several European powers are reconsidering their former role as followers of France and are rethinking their Sahel and francophone Africa strategy in a more autonomous way, by trying to avoid a spillover of this negative sentiment on them."

Washington has begun to recognize this, and she argued that the U.S. too is "diverting from France, as has been witnessed by their separate stance in the Sahel."

"The lessons that can be learned are that there should not be a perceived misalignment of security interests between partner African countries and security partners," Soulé said. "In the case of France, these were considered to serve French interests more than the host countries."

"Another lesson is to take African public opinion as much as possible into consideration—these are usually against the physical presence of external forces and military bases," she added. "If these partnerships aren't well negotiated both by external powers and African partners, there will likely be risks of diverging interests, instrumentalization and increasing defiance by African populations."

"An African Revolution"

As the African Union's former permanent representative to the United States, Arikana Chihombori-Quao has witnessed this growing defiance firsthand, and has dedicated extensive efforts to raise awareness abroad of it abroad, especially among African diasporas.

"What I see now is we have a critical mass of people who now understand what France is really doing, in terms of the magnitude of exploitation," Chihombori-Quao told Newsweek.

She described the uprising in Niger as the latest manifestation of "an African revolution" taking place across multiple countries. She also urged the U.S. to "not repeat the mistakes France has made" in the course of its own interactions on the continent.

And though Chihombori-Quao was heartened by the recent shift in U.S. strategy as evidenced by its recent engagement with CNSP, she asserted that a fundamental rethinking of the past approach was necessary to achieve lasting partnerships with Africans.

"They simply say, 'Treat us with respect, just like you do other nations. Come to Africa as an equal partner, we will welcome you,'" Chihombori-Quao said. "'If you come to Africa to continue exploitation, that's not going to work in Africa. If you are already in Africa, you had better readjust, because your days in Africa are numbered, unless you change your strategy.'"

This article has been updated to include comments by former French Secretary of State Rama Yade and former African Union permanent representative to the United States Arikana Chihombori-Quao.