Only 30% of FSB Would Back Putin if Another Mutiny Happens—Exiled Oligarch

Less than a third of Russia's Federal Security Service (FSB) would be prepared to back President Vladimir Putin should a repeat of Yevgeny Prigozhin's mutiny take place, Mikhail Khodorkovsky, a self-exiled former Russian tycoon, has told Newsweek.

Former Russian oil executive Khodorkovsky, once Russia's richest man before he spoke out against the Russian leader, said he is often contacted by members of the FSB who are disillusioned with Putin's regime and offer him "information."

The 60-year-old, who has been designated a "foreign agent" by the Kremlin, headed the energy company Yukos before he spent a decade in prison in Russia for what critics called politically motivated charges. He was one of the earliest supporters of democratic change in Russia, criticizing endemic corruption at a televised meeting with Putin in early 2003. Khodorkovsky was pardoned by the Russian president in 2013, but remains a leading critic of his regime.

In an interview with Newsweek from London, where he now lives, Khodorkovsky said he has learned that the loyalty level of people serving Putin is "rather low."

"I think if there were a different mutiny tomorrow, and FSB officers were called on to protect Putin from that mutiny, I reckon maybe only 30 percent would be ready to do that," he said.

The former oligarch was referring to an advance on Moscow by Wagner Group chief Prigozhin, who announced a "march of justice" against the country's military leadership on June 24.

In his aborted mutiny, which lasted less than 24 hours, the Wagner Group boss took control of two military hubs in southern Russia and advanced near to the capital, declaring that his goal was the resignation of the men leading Russia's war in Ukraine—Defense Minister Sergei Shoigu and Chief of the General Staff Valery Gerasimov.

Prigozhin's attempted rebellion came amid an intensifying spat with the Kremlin's top brass. Days earlier, he had shut down a demand from Shoigu and Putin that his paramilitary outfit sign contracts directly with the Defense Ministry by a July 1 deadline.

He halted his march as part of a deal brokered by Belarusian leader Alexander Lukashenko. However, Prigozhin said his forces faced no resistance as they advanced from southern Russia to the capital. The head of the Russian National Guard, Viktor Zolotov, also said on June 27 that Moscow concentrated all forces on the defense of the city "otherwise they would have passed through us like a knife through butter."

Putin Defector Spills All

In April, one of Khodorkovsky's projects, the investigative website Dossier Center, which tracks the criminal activity of various people associated with the Kremlin, published an interview with Gleb Karakulov, a defector of the Federal Guard Service (FSO). Karakulov served as a captain in FSO and as one of Putin's protection officers before fleeing to Istanbul because of his objections to the war in Ukraine.

"One defector [gave] us an interview, basically this is the person who was very close to Putin. He was the man who was supplying communications for Putin. He was walking around with a telephone line next to Putin all the time. He told us that the loyalty level of people serving Putin is rather low," Khodorkovsky said.

Khodorkovsky said this doesn't include Putin's "most inner circle," because "these people clearly understand that their fate, their future [and] destiny is totally intertwined with Putin's."

"Which doesn't mean that they might not betray him one day, or they would not betray him one day, but they're not going to mention that they're not going to talk about it publicly."

FSB chief Alexander Bortnikov is thought to be one of Putin's closest advisers, and worked with him the KGB in Leningrad, now St. Petersburg, during the Cold War.

"But if we're talking about the third or even the fourth added around Putin, there are quite a few sources from those circles," Khodorkovsky said. "These are the people who are trying to keep the back entrance open for themselves, for a potential exit for themselves."

Newsweek has contacted Russia's Foreign Ministry via email for comment.

Putin's Dilemma

Prigozhin was exiled to Belarus in the deal brokered by Lukashenko, and charges against him for organizing an armed mutiny were subsequently dropped. When asked why Putin appeared to let the Wagner chief off easily, Khodorkovsky said Putin is "in a fix" at the moment.

The Russian president decided not to risk retaliating against Prigozhin and his fighters with force, because the people Putin could have used to defend him and the regime from the Wagner boss "could actually turn their arms against the regime itself in the opposite direction."

"If he doesn't punish anyone for the mutiny, then the plan for another Prigozhin-type mutiny occurring is going to be much more likely," said Khodorkovsky.

"You start punishing people, then you could suddenly find out that half of the active army are siding with Prigozhin and then by that, you could actually promote a greater mutiny and much greater clash."

Loyalty to Putin

Prigozhin's march on Moscow was not the worst thing he did for Putin's regime, said Khodorkovsky.

"What he did was articulate the ideas—and not to the democratic audience, but Putin's audience—the words that they were ready to hear, [that] the war is the mistake, that the cause of the war is embezzlement for Putin, for the sake of Putin's entourage," he said.

"These are the words that people at the front line do not want to hear because this means that they had been betrayed. So he basically said, you have been betrayed."

The ideas that Prigozhin articulated through his uprising "cannot be rubbed out" and are now "in people's heads."

"They have heard it. So whether it's going to be Prigozhin, whether it's going to be somebody else, it doesn't matter. One thing is clear, Russia's armed forces are not going to be loyal to Putin. They are not loyal any longer," said Khodorkovsky.