Gaza Crisis Update: Israel Scrambles for Solutions

Israel's 16th week of war began with turbulence both on the home front and in the Gaza Strip, with Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu's emergency coalition facing growing international and domestic criticism.

The Israeli Defense Forces (IDF) said on Tuesday it had lost 24 soldiers in a single day—including 21 in fighting around the southern Gaza city of Khan Younis—marking the IDF's costliest 24 hours to date in the months-long incursion.

Israeli forces have killed more than 25,000 Palestinians in Gaza since October 7—per figures published by The Associated Press—following the surprise Hamas infiltration attack that killed 1,200 and saw hundreds of people taken back into the Palestinian territory as hostages.

Militants are thought to still hold more than 130 people spread across Gaza. Negotiations for a new ceasefire to facilitate their release have so far proved fruitless, prompting major demonstrations within Israel. On Monday, relatives of the hostages stormed a session in the Israeli parliament demanding lawmakers do more to secure their freedom.

Yossi Mekelberg, an associate fellow at the Chatham House think tank in the U.K., told Newsweek there is "anger" and "disappointment with the government" in Israel. He added: "It's a terrible pain, the sense that the government is doing nothing about it."

Contacted by Newsweek, a Netanyahu spokesperson saidthe prime minister's office was not offering comment.

Most of Gaza's 2.3 million people have been displaced and more than half of the buildings there damaged or destroyed in Israel's withering offensive. The IDF has reported killing more than 8,000 militants in the fighting, which U.S. officials believe represents some 20 to 30 percent of the group's personnel.

But for all the carnage, Israel is yet to "eradicate" the Islamist group, with officials and experts suggesting such a goal is unrealistic. Hamas' Gaza leader Yahya Sinwar and military commander Mohammed Deif have so far evaded Israel, and Israeli leaders appear to have little plan for the future of the devastated coastal region.

Jonathan Schanzer, the senior vice president for research at the Foundation for Defense of Democracies (FDD)—a think tank that describes itself as non-partisan, but is considered close to Israel—told Newsweek earlier this month that different elements of the Israeli state have different visions of Gaza's future.

"I don't know how the Israelis are going to square this," he explained. "The IDF seems to have one, the political echelons they seem to have one. And by the way, left and right have different 'day after' scenarios."

Netanyahu was criticized this weekend for pushing back on President Joe Biden's call for talks on a two-state solution to be revived.

"In his conversation with President Biden, Prime Minister Netanyahu reiterated his policy that, after Hamas is destroyed, Israel must retain security control over Gaza to ensure that Gaza will no longer pose a threat to Israel," Netanyahu's spokesperson said after the two leaders spoke by phone.

This is "a requirement that contradicts the demand for Palestinian sovereignty," the prime minister's office said.

There appear to be multiple plans in play, or at least being briefed to international media and Israeli partners. Axios reported, citing unnamed Israeli officials, that Israel has proposed a two-month ceasefire through Qatari and Egyptian mediators, under which all remaining hostages would be freed.

CNN also cited anonymous officials in its report that Israeli intelligence chief David Barnea suggested a ceasefire deal in December by which Hamas leaders would be allowed to leave Gaza.

Hamas leaders are not expected to agree to leave Gaza, CNN reported. "Sinwar is not stupid," Mekelberg said. "He knows that at the end of the day, whatever happens, Israel will find him. If he didn't get it on October 7, he gets it now. They won't rest until they find him and Mohammed Deif, and many of the others."

Foreign Minister Israel Katz, meanwhile, was met with little enthusiasm this week when he pitched post-war plans to European Union officials. Katz suggested Israel may build a railway to connect Gaza to the occupied Palestinian West Bank, or construct an artificial island in the Mediterranean Sea off the Gazan coast to serve as a commercial hub for the impoverished territory.

"I think that the minister could have used his time better to worry about the situation in his country, or the high death toll in Gaza," EU foreign policy chief Josep Borrell told reporters after the meeting.

Israel's 'Quagmire'

As tense ceasefire negotiations continue, Netanyahu—a divisive and tenacious leader whose popularity has dipped following October 7 and through the subsequent war—is reportedly struggling to hold his emergency coalition together.

Opposition leader Yair Lapid is calling on Netanyahu to set a date for an election. "There are enough people in your coalition who can't take it anymore," Lapid said this week, describing Netanyahu's government as "dangerous to the people of Israel."

The policy vacuum has amplified far-right extremists within Netanyahu's coalition. Among them are National Security Minister Itamar Ben-Gvir and Finance Minister Bezalel Smotrich, both of whom have advocated for the permanent resettlement of Palestinians out of Gaza. U.S. officials have demanded any such talk "stop immediately."

Israel is "a country in shock," Mekelberg said, still recovering from the horrors of October 7 and now faced with an open-ended war against Hamas, plus its Iranian-aligned partners across the region. "Obviously the same goes on the other side," Mekelberg said. "With a lack of leadership on both sides, there is no one to take them out of it."

"There is no trust," he added of the ceasefire negotiations. Without progress, "Israel might be stuck in Gaza for years," Mekelberg said.

"It doesn't take a genius," Mekelberg continued. "Look at history, including Israeli history in Lebanon and the Intifadas...You get deeper and deeper in the quagmire." Worse may yet come, he added. "Gradually the guerrillas gain the advantage. They know the place. They've built it for years."

Israel, he suggested, should have launched an initial retaliation followed by a comprehensively planned project that did not risk "alienating the entire Palestinian people, and the international community, and stopping normalization with Saudi Arabia, and straining relations with those who signed Abraham Accords."

"It's a terrible situation," Mekelberg said. "On the one hand, you get more and more people who will think this is becoming futile, we're not going to achieve it, we need to cut our losses at a certain point. Let's look for something that will look like an achievement."

"But there will also be voices who say, 'No, we started it. We lost so many soldiers. [We'll go] until the bitter end.' And I'm afraid of that."

Meanwhile, Israeli leaders are warning of action against the Hezbollah militia organization along the northern border with Lebanon. Israel has already launched multiple strikes against Hamas, Hezbollah, and Iranian figures in Lebanon and Syria, while the U.S. is engaged against Tehran-aligned groups in Iraq and Yemen.

"We are in a wider conflict already," Mekelberg said. "I think we can repeat time and again that no side has an interest in a full-blown war. However, it doesn't mean that it's not going to happen."