Geoscientists have warned that the rapid warming of the Arctic could bring a 3.6-degree Fahrenheit rise in global temperature eight years ahead of schedule.
The bleak findings come from researchers at the University College London (UCL) in a study published in the journal Earth System Dynamics.
The Arctic is warming four times faster than the average rate, the study says. The research's purpose was to find out how this will be manifested and whether it will cause a breach of the 1.5-degree and 2-degree Celsius thresholds set out in the 2015 Paris Agreement.
The agreement is a legally binding treaty in which 194 states plus the European Union agreed to strengthen the response to climate change by keeping temperatures below 2 C. It also set out objectives to lower the global temperature even further, to 1.5 degrees.
To reach their conclusions, the UCL researchers created alternative projections in a scenario where, hypothetically, rapid Arctic warming was not happening. These projections were then compared with the real-world projections.
They then analyzed the timings for when the Paris Agreement thresholds would be breached in both scenarios. In real-life projections, the thresholds are set to be breached by 2031 and 2051.
But in the fake projections with no Arctic warming, the thresholds were calculated to be breached five and eight years later than this. This suggests that Arctic warming is essentially speeding up the whole process.
"The findings highlight how the Arctic loss of snow and ice is contributing to overall global warming and pushing the planet towards warming targets faster than it otherwise would," Julienne Stroeve, a co-author of the study, told Newsweek.
"The melting snow and ice influence the overall global temperatures by absorbing the incoming sunlight and heating up the ocean, land and lower atmosphere. It stresses the important role the Arctic plays in our global climate system and that preserving the snow and ice there can reduce the overall warming expected," said Stroeve, who works at UCL Earth Sciences, the University of Manitoba, Canada, and the U.S. National Snow and Ice Data Center.
Arctic warming affects the planet in many ways. Arctic ice helps regulate global temperatures. The ice keeps the air cool, but as climate change worsens, it is beginning to melt. This in turn affects global temperatures, although until this most recent study, it was not clear to what extent.
Alistair Duffey of UCL Earth Sciences, the study's lead author, said in a press release detailing the findings that the study highlights the global importance of rapid Arctic warming by quantifying its large impact.
"These findings underscore the need for more extensive monitoring of temperatures in the region, both in situ and via satellites, and for a better understanding of the processes occurring there, which can be used to improve forecasts of global temperature rise," he said.
Although the study does not calculate how Arctic warming is affecting the local environment, the researchers warn that this should not be ignored.
"While our study focuses on how Arctic warming affects global temperature change, the local impacts should not be overlooked," Stroeve said in the release. "A 2 C temperature rise globally would result in a 4 C annual mean rise in the Arctic, and a 7 C rise in winter, with profound consequences for local people and ecosystems.
"In addition, rapid warming in the Arctic has global consequences that we do not account for in this study, including sea level rise and the thawing of permafrost, which leads to more carbon being released into the air," she said.
About the writer
Robyn White is a Newsweek Nature Reporter based in London, UK. Her focus is reporting on wildlife, science and the ... Read more
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